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Friday, March 31, 2006 The devil is in the detail in the Middle EastAlthough Ehud Olmert's Kadima (Forward) party drew less support than anticipated, he still emerged ahead of everyone else in the recent Israeli election. He will have to struggle rather more than had been thought to put together a coalition, but it is clear that he will head Israel's next government. There is hope in this because his election campaign left no room for doubt: he intends to evacuate some 80,000 Jewish settlers from 20 settlements on the West Bank. That campaign won him 28 seats in the 120-member Knesset (parliament). The revived Labour party (with its socio-economic agenda), which will back withdrawal, drew 20 seats. Together with other smaller parties (punting religious and other issues) they outweigh those who reject any withdrawal from the West Bank. [more] by Moderator @ 11:04 AM CST [Link] The Syrian regime is not about to collapseNehad Ismail's account of the bleak prospects of Syrian opposition explains why few are enthusiastic about regime change in Syria, despite the urgent need for reform. There has been a plethora of headlines recently about the imminent collapse of the Syrian regime. To quote just a few: "Syrian opposition closes ranks" "Exiled Syrian opposition calls for regime change" "Syrian opposition forms alliance" "Syrian opposition unite against Assad" and "Syrian opposition unites to oust Assad". The brutal fact, however, is that the Syrian opposition is too weak to topple the Assad regime. It is fragmented and divided. It has no coherent strategy to achieve common objectives. There is no co-ordination and no workable program unifying the fractious factions. [more] by Moderator @ 10:49 AM CST [Link] Wednesday, March 29, 2006 First Results - Israeli Election SurprisesJudging from exit polls results of three Israeli TV channels, the Israeli elections were a bit of a surprise. The Kadima party of Ehud Olmert got the most mandates as predicted, but its victory is smaller than expected: about 29-32 seats. The Labor party got 20-22 seats. Following is full list and some observations. [more] by Moderator @ 01:43 AM CST [Link] Saturday, March 25, 2006 Gaza and the West Bank - What Nobody is SayingLast week Gaza almost starved to death as Israel and the Palestine Authority bickered over whether goods could enter Gaza from the Karni or Kerem Shalom crossings. Israel insisted that Kerem Shalom was safer. Palestinians insisted they wanted a crossing that through Karni. Karni-Kerem-Shalom, Kerem-Shalom - Karni. Tomayto, tomahto. Finally the US insisted that somehow food and other vital goods had to get to Gaza, and at last writing both crossings seem to be open without incident. Israel wanted to use Kerem Shalom because it is safer. Palestinians wanted to use Karni because Israel wanted to use Kerem Shalom. Meanwhile, kids in Gaza were about to go hungry, because Gaza was running out of flour. [more] by Moderator @ 10:57 AM CST [Link] Thursday, March 23, 2006 Iraquagmire - Putting an end to the Iraqi nightmare
Three years after the Iraq war that pro missed to bring democracy to the Middle East, there seems to be little hope for redemption of the Iraqi people, and no honorable way for the US and other countries to exit from the quicksand swamp of sectarianism, Islamist fanaticism and plain old corruption. Just about the only good thing that has happened recently was the rescue of three Christian Peace Team members who had been kidnapped. A fourth, Tom Fox, had been brutally and senselessly murdered. The fate of Tom Fox, who came to Iraq to help their people, with the most altruistic motives, is symbolic of Iraq in a way. It reminds us what road is paved with good intentions, and for some, it may show that Western notions of what is fitting and moral and correct may have the most disastrous consequences when applied indiscriminately in the Middle East. The Bush administration might be accused of spreading imperialism under the guise of spreading democracy in the Middle East, but surely Tom Fox had no such motives. by Moderator @ 04:19 PM CST [Link] Thursday, March 16, 2006 Strengthening Middle East ModeratesIn Yediot Ahronot, Ray Hanania writes that a way must be found to bring forth moderate leadership and moderate policies in the Israeli-Palestinian struggle. There can be no doubt in the mind of any decent person that Ray Hanania is right. The question we have all been asking is how to bring about this miracle. [more] by Moderator @ 03:14 PM CST [Link] Wednesday, March 15, 2006 Ehud Fit the battle of Jericho JailIsraeli-Palestinian relations, which were not exactly on an even keel, got a jolt on Tuesday when the IDF besieged the jail in Jericho that held PFLP head Ahmed Saadat and several other Palestinian prisoners and removed them all for safekeeping to Israel. A prisoner and a guard were killed during the siege and a third Palestinian died later of his wounds. [more] by Moderator @ 12:07 AM CST [Link] Monday, March 13, 2006 Tel-Aviv will be fun city, Jenin a riotI studied the foreign policy plans of the Likud and Kadima parties as best I can to learn the differences. The profound differences are: The Likud wants to keep half the West Bank and make the Americans sore. In contrast, Kadima wants to withdraw from half the West Bank and make the Americans happy. [more] by Moderator @ 11:30 AM CST [Link] Saturday, March 11, 2006 Iranian threats are not empty rhetoric and must be taken seriouslyIran has vowed to resist international pressure and threats after the International Atomic Energy Agency decided to put the issue of Iran's nuclear program before the UN Security Council. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme religious authority and spiritual guide in Iran, attributed the pressures on Iran to U.S. hostility towards Iran, which began 27 years ago; when the U.S cut diplomatic relations with Iran in the wake of the 1979 Iranian revolution that saw American diplomats taken hostage for 444 days. [more] by Moderator @ 12:50 AM CST [Link] Friday, March 10, 2006 Is there a future for Palestinians?
The triumph of Hamas in the recent Palestinian elections was certainly a shock. Hamas, to remind everyone, has reiterated at every opportunity that they will not recognize Israel. Recently, at the Moscow conference, this appeared to be softened by a statement of Khaled Mashal that they would only recognize Israel if Israel agreed to repatriate all the Palestinian refugees. Since that would amount to the destruction of Israel as a Jewish state, it amounts to the same thing, but with nuances and room for maneuver perhaps. It was quickly devalued by Khaled Mashal himself in interviews he gave to Al Jazeera and Al Arabiyah television. Those who think Hamas will adopt a realistic approach may be in for a big disappointment. Here are some quotes from the man himself:
Khaled Mashal: "There will be no concessions. Some people believe that realism means making concessions. It doesn't. Concessions were made in the past, with no results. On the contrary, making concessions is not realistic, because it means you are not acting in accordance with your people's needs, or with the requirements entailed by the reality of the Palestinian people.
How can anyone be expected to negotiate with an enemy who insists that making concessions is not realistic?
Here is the Hamas's "realistic" "peace" plan, from the same interview:
At minimum, Palestinians should be alarmed by the fact that Hamas has refused time and again to agree to the simple and obvious coalition conditions of Mahmoud Abbas that must be the basis of any responsible government:
The peace process reached an impasse because both sides could not make the concessions needed for peace. Palestinian leaders could not formally give up right of return. Israelis could not give up sovereignty of the Temple Mount. However, after the futility and destruction of the Intifada, it appeared that a way forward had been found. Until the rise of the Hamas, there was hope for a "live and let live" pragmatic arrangement: Israel would withdraw from most of the West Bank. The Palestinians would form a de facto state and cease terror activities. Both sides would get on with their lives. This is the scenario that Rami Khouri conjures up in the Daily Star. Khouri forgot or didn't read that the Hamas has no intention of becoming a responsible political movement. This is Mashal again in that same interview:
Khouri, and other Palestinians, want to make believe that nothing happened when Hamas was elected, or that Hamas policies will depend on Israel only. This is alarming, because real change in the Hamas and Palestine can come only if the Palestinians want that change.
[more]
by Moderator @ 12:46 PM CST [Link]
Thursday, March 9, 2006
I was saddened to learn that my friend Salahuddin Shoaib Choudhury, publisher of the Bangladesh weekly Blitz, will soon stand trial for "sedition" in Bangladesh, a charge that can result in capital punishment.
What are his "crimes?" Shoaib warned repeatedly about the rise of extremism in his country. He also tried to travel to Israel in order to bring a message of peace, and became the Bangladesh representative of IFLAC, a harmless international organization that encourages dialogue through culture. The enemies of democracy, peace and sanity have advanced the absurd claim that this group is somehow collected with nefarious Israeli intelligence organizations. Shoaib's "offences" are that he exposed the growing influence of Islamist fanaticism in Bangladesh before anyone else was aware of the problem. His courage brought down the wrath of the forces of evil upon him. He spent many, many months in jail, and was released only through the efforts of good friends abroad, US congresspersons and international press associations. [more]
by Moderator @ 10:51 AM CST [Link]
Saturday, March 4, 2006
Hamas's Moscow visit was a good lesson in international diplomacy. Politically the visit was a failure. Despite Israeli objections to the visit, which should have made it a triumph for Hamas, Hamas inexperience and its adherence to an outdated ideology prevented it from saying the right things.
However Israel cannot ignore Hamas as it ignored Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas. It is in Israel's interest to have a dialogue with Hamas. [more]
by Moderator @ 06:52 PM CST [Link]
These words are meant mostly for Israelis. Of all things, they are about a song. There are riots in Nazareth and people getting blown up in Iraq, but yours truly is writing about a song. Even more frivolously, the song is an entry in the Eurovision contest. To put it mildly, I am not a big fan of this contest and the kind of 'culture' it represents. So what is it all about? [more]
by Moderator @ 06:52 PM CST [Link]
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