MideastWeb Middle East Web Log |
log | archives | middle east | maps | history | documents | countries | books | encyclopedia | culture | dialogue | links | timeline | donations |
Search: |
|
|
Crystal Ball 201012/23/2009 There were no Crystal Ball in 2009, because Israeli and US elections seemed to produce a whole new set of possibilities - for better and worse. Looking at the review of the 2008 Crystal Ball, it seems I made a mistake. The predictions of 2008 could have just as easily been transferred to 2009 in most cases. And on the threshold of 2010, I dare to predict (not much daring required) that 2010 will look a lot like 2009: more stalled peace talks, more ineffectual US diplomacy regarding Iran, more suicide bombings in Iraq and Afghanistan. What was, for the most part, is probably what will be. The lack of novelty in Middle East policy, despite the radical departures promised both by Barack Obama and Benjamin Nethanyahu's Likud party, demonstrates that policies are dictated by objective constraints and by the approaches of professional foreign policy bureaucrats who mostly remain unchanged when there is a democratic change of government. Some specific predictions for 2010:
Palestinians: Mahmoud Abbas will remain President of the Palestinian Authority. Palestinian Authority will continue to gather support for their unilateral state declaration, which appears to be a promising avenue for bypassing the negotiation process and forcing their position on Israel with the backing of the EU and others. Israel & the Palestinians Israeli government will succumb to pressure and agree to ransom Gilad Shalit by releasing about a thousand prisoners, including, most likely, Marwan Barghouti. Additional kidnap attempts will be made from Gaza and possibly from Lebanon. No progress in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations even if Israel agrees to a building halt in East Jerusalem and negotiations are restarted. There will be a showdown between the United States and Israel at the end of the ten month period that Israel has allotted to the settlement freeze, because the United States will insist that the freeze be extended. The settlement freeze will ultimately be extended, at least partially, with no quid pro quo. The Netanyahu government has shown itself very poor at bargaining.
Iraq United States evacuation of Iraq will be completed in 2010 regardless of rising violence. US will not send more troops to Iraq before the next US presidential election
Afghanistan/Pakistan Pakistani efforts will meet with only limited and temporary success, as Taleban escape into the countryside or into Afghanistan.
Iran The US will make symbolic gestures to isolate Iran, but these will not be effective. USA will not strike a deal with Iran isolating Israel, despite the prediction of an Israeli think-tank, because there is no deal to be made that would safeguard US interests against Iran's self-proclaimed ambitions for regional hegemony and exclusion of the US from the Middle East. US will not attack Iran militarily. Israel will not attack Iran militarily. There will be more domestic unrest in Iran, met with harsh reprisals. There is a high probability that Iran is buidling or has built additional concealed nuclear facilities. One or more may be discovered or made public by foreign intelligence services in 2010. The Iranian regime will remain stable. Lebanon Look for increasing influence of Hezbollah and Syria under the pretext of fighting Israel. This may include the return of Syrian Army intelligence personnel to Lebanon, further arming of Hezbolla and further sycophantic visits such as the one made recently by President Hariri.
Yemen revolt will continue to raise tensions with Saudi Arabia. Europe There will be further islamophobic initiatives like the Swiss referendum banning minarets, though they may meet with less success. This is not an exciting list of predictions, I admit. It would be far more eye catching to forecast invasions and nuclear war and other mayhem. Some of that may happen, but the probability is low and the place and timing and perpetrators of such events cannot be predicted in advance. Who could really have predicted the 9-11 attack with any accuracy? Ami Isseroff
Original text copyright by the author and MidEastWeb for Coexistence, RA. Posted at MidEastWeb Middle East Web Log at http://www.mideastweb.org/log/archives/00000779.htm where your intelligent and constructive comments are welcome. Distributed by MEW Newslist. Subscribe by e-mail to mew-subscribe@yahoogroups.com. Please forward by email with this notice and link to and cite this article. Other uses by permission. |
|
Replies: 36 comments All it really takes is 15 or 17 fanatical followers of any political or religious faction to poison the water and cause a war just like bin-Laden's terror cell that attacked the USA on 9-11. These people could be Zionists or Islamists. They could be from or affiliated with almost any country in the world. Some might do it to preclude or prevent peace. Others might do it just to drive up the price of oil or to destabilize the region. If just a few people want war, war is easy enough to start. The problem is war is usually very difficult to end. It is far better for belligerent or intransigent countries to agressively wage peace before some fanatic comes along whose actions will make peace impossible. Posted by Kiev500 @ 02/03/2010 11:55 AM CST PRICE OF 90 DAYS OF PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST? 20 Advanced Fighter Jets!!! What did Hilary Clinton and The United States give Israel to extend their settlement freeze for 90 days with no strings attached? The United States is prepared to give Israel over 3 billion US dollars in highly advanced fighter jets! The 20 extremely deadly fighter jets, among other incentives, still allows Israel to build on the disputed settlements after the freeze with no resistance from The US. Plus, Israel will now have 20 F-35 fighter jets to defend their construction! http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/14/AR2010111403857.html Posted by Bill @ 11/15/2010 10:54 AM CST Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic. If possible, as you gain expertise, would you mind updating your blog with more information? It is extremely helpful for me. Posted by john @ 07/12/2011 05:23 AM CST Israeli government will succumb to pressure and agree to ransom Gilad Shalit by releasing about a thousand prisoners, including, most likely, Marwan Barghouti. Posted by queen bookcase headboard @ 07/12/2011 10:33 AM CST The settlement freeze will ultimately be extended, at least partially, with no quid pro quo. The Netanyahu government has shown itself very poor at bargaining. Posted by queen bookcase headboard @ 07/12/2011 10:35 AM CST
Authority will continue to gather support for their unilateral state declaration, which appears to be a promising avenue for bypassing the negotiation process and forcing their position on Israel with the backing of the EU and others. Posted by queen bookcase headboard @ 07/12/2011 10:37 AM CST Israeli government will succumb to pressure and agree to ransom Gilad Shalit by releasing about a thousand prisoners, including, most likely, Marwan Barghouti. Posted by payday loans @ 07/12/2011 11:01 AM CST Really your post is really very good and I appreciate it. It’s hard to sort the good from the bad sometimes, but I think you’ve nailed it. You write very well which is amazing. I really impressed by your post. Posted by flowers delivery malaysia @ 07/12/2011 11:07 AM CST
uthority will continue to gather support for their unilateral state declaration, which appears to be a promising avenue for bypassing the negotiation process and forcing their position on Israel with the backing of the EU and others. Posted by supra skytop @ 07/12/2011 03:08 PM CST uthority will continue to gather support for their unilateral state declaration, which appears to be a promising avenue for bypassing the negotiation process and f Posted by supra shoes @ 07/12/2011 03:09 PM CST
ill continue to gather support for their unilateral state declaration, which appears to be a promising avenue for bypassing the negotiation process and forcing their position on Israel with the backing of the EU and others. Posted by supra skytop @ 07/12/2011 03:11 PM CST
support for their unilateral state declaration, which appears to be a promising avenue for bypassing the negotiation process and forcing their position on Israel with the backing of the EU and others. Posted by supra skytop @ 07/12/2011 03:13 PM CST which appears to be a promising avenue for bypassing the negotiation process and forcing their position on Israel with the backing Posted by Austin Home Search @ 07/12/2011 03:32 PM CST The United States is prepared to give Israel over 3 billion US dollars in highly advanced fighter jets! The 20 extremely deadly fighter Posted by Austin Home Rentals @ 07/12/2011 03:33 PM CST You know, there's no telling when it's going to end. It's been going on for so long, who really knows? All I know is that Countries can do their best to try to resolve the issue but in the end, it's in their hands if this comes to an end or not. As far as the US setting themselves as a Global police force, there's some need for that but only to an extent. One power can only do so much. Posted by Live Chat @ 07/12/2011 04:41 PM CST I want to see whether or not this is something we should be able to work on as well. I need to have a good look into it now. This could have been my last chance. Posted by Phone Service Articles @ 07/12/2011 09:46 PM CST I came to this page by searching Yahoo. I have found it quite interesting. Thank you for providing this. I will have to visit here again! Posted by Power Jack Repair @ 07/12/2011 10:40 PM CST While surfing and googling, I found this site with an interesting topic to discuss with. I will come back here if i have available time to read some posts. Posted by Online Jobs Philippines @ 07/13/2011 04:21 AM CST The systemic problem still there even until today. I do not know what is the reason behind this problem but apparently there are some issues related with the access here in this website. I wish that this can be sorted out soon. Posted by hosting @ 07/13/2011 07:18 AM CST I would like to reitereate the situation and this is something that is going to be persist in many way. I know the changes in formats of this subsequent information in music and songs are something we should be care about. Posted by iPhone coming to Sprint @ 07/13/2011 08:37 AM CST Remarkable post and will look forward to your future update. The post is written in very a good manner and it contains much useful information for me. It is pleasing to look you express from the heart and your clarity on this significant content can be easily looked. Though you make some VERY fascinating points, youre going to have to do more than bring up a few things that may be different than what weve already heard.Ventilator Posted by Ventilator @ 07/13/2011 09:36 AM CST I agree with the fact that new sanctions will not affect Iran. Whatever sanctions we place on them, they always seem to find a way out. Posted by acne products @ 07/13/2011 09:52 AM CST It’s a nice point of view but I’m not sure if most people will agree with it, but then again, everyone is entitled to a opinion. Posted by silver jewelry @ 07/13/2011 11:01 AM CST This is a very intriguing post, I was looking for this knowledge. Just so you know I found your web site when I was searching for blogs like mine, so please check out my site sometime and leave me a comment to let me know what you think. Posted by design to html @ 07/13/2011 12:32 PM CST I have visit this blog first time in my life and i really liked its outstanding and amazing post and i have intended to visit it weekly. Posted by extra long shower curtain @ 07/13/2011 01:17 PM CST No progress in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations even if Israel agrees to a building halt in East Jerusalem and negotiations are restarted. Posted by cash advance loans online @ 07/13/2011 01:30 PM CST This is a very intriguing post, I was looking for this knowledge. Just so you know I found your web site when I was searching for blogs like mine, so please check out my site sometime and leave me a comment to let me know what you think. Posted by HCG Spray @ 07/13/2011 01:39 PM CST Most of us have habits that we shouldn’t be doing. Some of smoke, drink, gamble, eat too much, don’t work out enough, or spend too much. Whatever behavior it is that you are unhappy with, you can change it by using positive motivation.. Posted by SEO @ 07/13/2011 02:18 PM CST I am sure that I am not the only one who share the same confusion with many people related with withholding tax procedure. I do wish there are some clear guidance on the law and regulation applied to this tax. Posted by motores tubulares @ 07/13/2011 03:04 PM CST Hello, i am glad to read the whole content of this blog and am very excited and happy to say that the webmaster has done a very good job here to put all the information content and information at one place. Posted by Buy Darvocet N 100 @ 07/13/2011 03:28 PM CST I appreciated what you have done here. I enjoyed every little bit part of it. I am always searching for informative information like this. Thanks for sharing with us. Posted by Buy Clomid @ 07/13/2011 03:28 PM CST
its a wonderful post it give me a lot of ideas,i will wait for your next post. Posted by Jesse Lynch @ 07/13/2011 03:46 PM CST Appreciated for the above discussion.... Posted by piano teacher @ 07/13/2011 04:19 PM CST I was intrigued in this blog though I haven't much understandings of what is happening in the said countries. I even don't know what crystal ball means. If I was right, this is an agreement between parties regarding the military issues. Anyway, I'll just read more information on this to understand the situation. I just hope this leads to no war to both parties. Non Surgical Face Lift Posted by Cathy Reynolds @ 07/13/2011 05:14 PM CST I think the crystal ball means, how they foresee the future for 2010. Well what what happening right now there not much of an improvement actually. For all the misunderstanding happening between countries. I hope that there'll be a time when all countries become at peace! Posted by fat grafting @ 07/13/2011 06:48 PM CST I wonder why most misunderstanding happens in the middle east? Country fights happens with middle east countries of against US. Is it all about the economy or military issues? The word PEACE, I hope it reaches the heart of all the leaders not only in the middle east but around the globe. Posted by non surgical face lift @ 07/13/2011 06:51 PM CST Please do not leave notes for MidEastWeb editors here. Hyperlinks are not displayed. We may delete or abridge comments that are longer than 250 words, or consist entirely of material copied from other sources, and we shall delete comments with obscene or racist content or commercial advertisements. Comments should adhere to Mideastweb Guidelines . IPs of offenders will be banned. |
[Previous entry: "A Palestinian peace plan for all of us"] Main Index [Next entry: "Horse Sense about America and the Middle East"]
ALL PREVIOUS MidEastWeb Middle East LOG ENTRIES
Thank you for visiting MidEastWeb - Middle East.
If you like what you see here, tell others about the MidEastWeb Middle East Web Log - www.mideastweb.org/log/.
Copyright
Editors' contributions are copyright by the authors and MidEastWeb for Coexistence RA.
Please link to main article pages and tell your friends about MidEastWeb. Do not copy MidEastWeb materials to your Web Site. That is a violation of our copyright. Click for copyright policy.
MidEastWeb and the editors are not responsible for content of visitors' comments.
Please report any comments that are offensive or racist.
Editors can log in by clicking here
|