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Crystal Ball 2010

12/23/2009

There were no Crystal Ball in 2009, because Israeli and US elections seemed to produce a whole new set of possibilities - for better and worse. Looking at the review of the 2008 Crystal Ball, it seems I made a mistake. The predictions of 2008 could have just as easily been transferred to 2009 in most cases. And on the threshold of 2010, I dare to predict (not much daring required) that 2010 will look a lot like 2009: more stalled peace talks, more ineffectual US diplomacy regarding Iran, more suicide bombings in Iraq and Afghanistan. What was, for the most part, is probably what will be.

The lack of novelty in Middle East policy, despite the radical departures promised both by Barack Obama and Benjamin Nethanyahu's Likud party, demonstrates that policies are dictated by objective constraints and by the approaches of professional foreign policy bureaucrats who mostly remain unchanged when there is a democratic change of government.

Some specific predictions for 2010:

Palestinians:
No unity government - neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority are really interested in such a government.

Mahmoud Abbas will remain President of the Palestinian Authority.

Palestinian Authority will continue to gather support for their unilateral state declaration, which appears to be a promising avenue for bypassing the negotiation process and forcing their position on Israel with the backing of the EU and others.

Israel & the Palestinians

Israeli government will succumb to pressure and agree to ransom Gilad Shalit by releasing about a thousand prisoners, including, most likely, Marwan Barghouti.

Additional kidnap attempts will be made from Gaza and possibly from Lebanon.

No progress in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations even if Israel agrees to a building halt in East Jerusalem and negotiations are restarted.

There will be a showdown between the United States and Israel at the end of the ten month period that Israel has allotted to the settlement freeze, because the United States will insist that the freeze be extended.

The settlement freeze will ultimately be extended, at least partially, with no quid pro quo. The Netanyahu government has shown itself very poor at bargaining.

Iraq
Security situation will continue to deteriorate as Americans leave.

United States evacuation of Iraq will be completed in 2010 regardless of rising violence.

US will not send more troops to Iraq before the next US presidential election

Afghanistan/Pakistan
US surge will not be effective, since the Taleban are not concentrated in cities but rather diffused throughout the country.

Pakistani efforts will meet with only limited and temporary success, as Taleban escape into the countryside or into Afghanistan.

Iran
New sanctions against Iran will not be effective, in part because China would veto effective sanctions.

The US will make symbolic gestures to isolate Iran, but these will not be effective.

USA will not strike a deal with Iran isolating Israel, despite the prediction of an Israeli think-tank, because there is no deal to be made that would safeguard US interests against Iran's self-proclaimed ambitions for regional hegemony and exclusion of the US from the Middle East.

US will not attack Iran militarily.

Israel will not attack Iran militarily.

There will be more domestic unrest in Iran, met with harsh reprisals.

There is a high probability that Iran is buidling or has built additional concealed nuclear facilities. One or more may be discovered or made public by foreign intelligence services in 2010.

The Iranian regime will remain stable.

Lebanon

Look for increasing influence of Hezbollah and Syria under the pretext of fighting Israel. This may include the return of Syrian Army intelligence personnel to Lebanon, further arming of Hezbolla and further sycophantic visits such as the one made recently by President Hariri.


Yemen

Yemen revolt will continue to raise tensions with Saudi Arabia.

Europe

There will be further islamophobic initiatives like the Swiss referendum banning minarets, though they may meet with less success.

This is not an exciting list of predictions, I admit. It would be far more eye catching to forecast invasions and nuclear war and other mayhem. Some of that may happen, but the probability is low and the place and timing and perpetrators of such events cannot be predicted in advance. Who could really have predicted the 9-11 attack with any accuracy?

Ami Isseroff

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Replies: 36 comments

All it really takes is 15 or 17 fanatical followers of any political or religious faction to poison the water and cause a war just like bin-Laden's terror cell that attacked the USA on 9-11.

These people could be Zionists or Islamists. They could be from or affiliated with almost any country in the world. Some might do it to preclude or prevent peace. Others might do it just to drive up the price of oil or to destabilize the region.

If just a few people want war, war is easy enough to start. The problem is war is usually very difficult to end. It is far better for belligerent or intransigent countries to agressively wage peace before some fanatic comes along whose actions will make peace impossible.

Posted by Kiev500 @ 02/03/2010 11:55 AM CST

PRICE OF 90 DAYS OF PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST? 20 Advanced Fighter Jets!!!

What did Hilary Clinton and The United States give Israel to extend their settlement freeze for 90 days with no strings attached? The United States is prepared to give Israel over 3 billion US dollars in highly advanced fighter jets! The 20 extremely deadly fighter jets, among other incentives, still allows Israel to build on the disputed settlements after the freeze with no resistance from The US. Plus, Israel will now have 20 F-35 fighter jets to defend their construction!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/14/AR2010111403857.html

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Posted by john @ 07/12/2011 05:23 AM CST

Israeli government will succumb to pressure and agree to ransom Gilad Shalit by releasing about a thousand prisoners, including, most likely, Marwan Barghouti.

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The settlement freeze will ultimately be extended, at least partially, with no quid pro quo. The Netanyahu government has shown itself very poor at bargaining.

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Authority will continue to gather support for their unilateral state declaration, which appears to be a promising avenue for bypassing the negotiation process and forcing their position on Israel with the backing of the EU and others.
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You know, there's no telling when it's going to end. It's been going on for so long, who really knows? All I know is that Countries can do their best to try to resolve the issue but in the end, it's in their hands if this comes to an end or not. As far as the US setting themselves as a Global police force, there's some need for that but only to an extent. One power can only do so much.

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No progress in Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations even if Israel agrees to a building halt in East Jerusalem and negotiations are restarted.

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Posted by piano teacher @ 07/13/2011 04:19 PM CST

I was intrigued in this blog though I haven't much understandings of what is happening in the said countries. I even don't know what crystal ball means. If I was right, this is an agreement between parties regarding the military issues. Anyway, I'll just read more information on this to understand the situation. I just hope this leads to no war to both parties.

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Posted by Cathy Reynolds @ 07/13/2011 05:14 PM CST

I think the crystal ball means, how they foresee the future for 2010. Well what what happening right now there not much of an improvement actually. For all the misunderstanding happening between countries. I hope that there'll be a time when all countries become at peace!

Posted by fat grafting @ 07/13/2011 06:48 PM CST

I wonder why most misunderstanding happens in the middle east? Country fights happens with middle east countries of against US. Is it all about the economy or military issues? The word PEACE, I hope it reaches the heart of all the leaders not only in the middle east but around the globe.

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