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Prophet & Loss Statement, 2008

12/28/2008

It's that time of year again - time to review last year's predictions against what really happened. As usual, the predictions missed the really big events, which are always, by definition unforeseen: the world economic crisis and the Mumbai massacre. But the other predictions were fairly accurate: 18 of the 21 predictions were right (and one "non-prediction" that doesn't count). That's 86%. Of the additional "non-predictions," none really came to fruition, but Pakistan was certainly a place to watch in 2008. In the list below,"+ means the prediction came true, - - it didn't happen, 0 - can't decide.

Israel
0: Ehud Olmert will remain in power in Israel for another year despite Winograd report. USA wants him there. inconclusive - literally true, but Olmert was deposed in favor of Livni, who is also favored by USA.

Israel and the Palestinians
+: No Palestinian state in 2008 and no peace agreement. I hope I am wrong, but wishing will not make it so. Neither Olmert nor Abbas can compromise on Right of Return or Jerusalem.

+: Hamas remains in power in Gaza at least.

+: Al Qaeda will show at least some presence in Palestinian areas. Palestinian sources report that Fatah al-Islam is established in Gaza. Bin Laden has mentioned "Palestine" as a target for his Jihad.

+: Israel will dismantle at least some illegal outposts under US pressure. Outpost was dismantled - with a big show of violence too; settlers were also thrown out of house in Hebron.

-: Israel will actually reduce, if not eliminate, settlement expansion. especially in areas outside of the security fence.

+: Visit of President Bush will produce a great show of activity, but little real results. Who even remembers the visit?

+: PA in West Bank will increase cooperation with Israel in security matters.

+: Israel will relax security at some checkpoints in the West Bank.Not much, but some

+: PA will not be able to eliminate terror groups such as Islamic Jihad in the West Bank.

+: IDF will continue to arrest Islamic Jihad and other wanted people in the West Bank.

+: Israel will not retake all of Gaza, Going out on a limb here - still two more days in December.

- Not a prediction: Israel may undertake a major operation with the goal of cutting off arms supplies and eliminating Qassam rocket firing - short of retaking the entire Gaza strip. True, but I marked it not a prediction, so it doesn't count, does it?

Iraq

+: US troop "draw down" will occur as planned, regardless of objective security situation.Troops are going to Afghanistan, despite continued suicide bombings.

+: Political situation will continue to be stalled and will be complicated by growing dissatisfaction of Kurds over Turkish incursions.First part is true for certain.

Iran
+: NIE report has sabotaged any chance for an effective sanctions resolution against Iran.For whatever reason, there certainly was no effective sanctions resolution.

+: Israel will not attack Iran. Sunday Times and other fiction writers lose again.

+: USA will not attack Iran. Sy Hersh will write a novel about the U.S. attack on Iran.

+: Iran will continue enrichment of uranium, but will not have or announce nuclear weapons capability.

Lebanon

+: Syria will not allow election of a president who does not reflect its interests, or a political settlement that doesn't guarantee a stranglehold on the government in line with the demands of the Hezbollah. This will preclude actual prosecution of guilty parties in the Hariri assassination as well as ensure Syrian control of important economic and political interests in Lebanon.This is basically right. There is no chance of any real Hariri investigation. Sleiman was tamed by Syria

-: France and others may go ahead with prosecution in the Hariri case, but without Syrian or Lebanese cooperation, nothing substantive will come of this case. France chickened out. So did U.S.

Afghanistan
+: Situation will not improve and will probably deteriorate. May be exacerbated by events in Pakistan.

Predictions for next year are invited - it's a whole new ball game.

Ami Isseroff

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Original text copyright by the author and MidEastWeb for Coexistence, RA. Posted at MidEastWeb Middle East Web Log at http://www.mideastweb.org/log/archives/00000738.htm where your intelligent and constructive comments are welcome. Distributed by MEW Newslist. Subscribe by e-mail to mew-subscribe@yahoogroups.com. Please forward by email with this notice and link to and cite this article. Other uses by permission.

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Replies: 11 comments

Hey friend, if you could possiably be as accurate in for the U.S. stock market you would be on my friends list FOREVER. Thanks for showing the courage to actually post your predictions. Good Luck in the coming New Year.

Posted by Bingram @ 12/30/2008 07:53 PM CST

"Sunday Times and other fiction writers lose again." and "Sy Hersh will write a novel about the U.S. attack on Iran." I love it!!!!!!!!! What "Years" prediction will Hersh's novel and/or the writings of "Times and other fiction writers" be the "accepted" historical record?

Posted by Blandly Urbane @ 12/31/2008 06:40 PM CST

To be peace is aware that every human being is emanation of GOD, so if you hurt/ kill other man it mean you hurt/kill your self, dogma/ religion just illusion in the 3rd dimension, in the real 4th dimension, everything is eternal , same degree as emanation of GOD,
so if You know Yourself you know the world and no need for war, Islam is surrender to GOD 100%, and it is behavior in all religion not only name of a religion, warning!!! if both nations still in war, nobody will win the land, i read a book "ramalan jayabaya abad 21", the land will submerged, and nobody will win the land , JIHAD is to kill your own ego, to become 100% surrender to GOD, so acting as beholder of GOD action thru yourself. THAT IS JIHAD FOR ISLAM, NOT WAR BUT PEACE within yourself

Posted by Ratna Kumala @ 01/02/2009 06:37 AM CST

If you do not have anything good to say , just shut up!

We were not even there when all these so called wars happened back then.
Peace means peace regardless of any religion in this world.
You know how dirty this world is..man can create anything they want.
Some can be so manupulative till they make the whole world believe
what they want them to believe thru the press, etc.. To those who loves to be at war or know how to create war please stop it may you be muslims, jews, christians, hindu, buddhist.etc...God look at your kindness not segregate by color or creed.
And if a certain group of a religion are trouble makers there are millions more
of the same religion out there who loves peace.They do not represent the whole religion. Please open up your brains...

Posted by suzie @ 01/03/2009 07:35 AM CST

The Isrealies Are responsible for the war going on in the Gaza SStrip and for the 810 people killed over 100 of them childern and women the Jews took there life.

Posted by Nimah Hassan @ 01/13/2009 04:45 PM CST

Nimah---Are you kidding? All Hamas has to do is stop bombing Isreal, and they basically said NO WAY!! I do not think it is an unrealistic request.

Ratna---GOD, bless you!!

Posted by Love @ 01/13/2009 05:53 PM CST

I don't understand the pun; Prophet and Loss...as the title of the article. It's irreverant, and as always racist.Mocking people's beliefs will achieve nothing.One misguided poster said; "All Hamas has to do is stop bombing Israel.." All Israel has to do is abide by the UN resolution 242 and Camp David Accords. Leave the occupied territories! Give the Palestinians their homes back or pay restitution.
That was a UN resolution! Israel does whatever it feels like, no matter how wrong.And the US backs it up...Shameful.

Posted by Jerome Shapiro @ 01/16/2009 04:07 AM CST

Mumbai massacre was planned by indians and usa and britan.

Posted by goodman @ 01/18/2009 04:00 AM CST

Love what are you talking about all the isrealies have to do is leave gaza

Posted by nimah hassan @ 02/11/2009 10:13 PM CST

Love what are you talking about all the isrealies have to do is leave gaza

Posted by nimah hassan @ 02/11/2009 10:13 PM CST

israel massacre: thousands of inocent palistinians and down israel will go
and the will burn falasteen hurray hurray

Posted by yousef atik @ 02/13/2009 05:14 AM CST


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