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Is Iran hiding nuclear facilities?09/29/2007 Iranian President Ahmadinejad, in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly, announced unilaterally that Iran considered the matter of its nuclear development program a closed issue politically, that could be dealt with at the level of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Citing Security Council prejudice against Iran, Ahmadinejad stated: .
It is fairly clear that Iran has in effect decided to abrogate its commitment to international law under the U.N. Charter, a declaration that should be of serious concern for those who value civil society and the rule of law. The bravado of Mr Ahmadinejad, far from being due to unfavorable treatment in the Security Council, is due to his absolute confidence that Iran will be protected from effective Security Council sanctions or other actions by the more or less automatic veto of China. Paralyzed by the Russian and Chinese objections, the 5+1 group, comprising the permanent members of the Security Council (U.S., Britain, France, China, Russia) plus Germany, met on Friday and agreed to postpone a decision about Iran until November, awaiting the outcome of negotiations with the IAEA. Projecting sweet reasonableness, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the statement's intent was not to threaten sanctions but rather to "concentrate on doing everything to help negotiations succeed." Lavrov had exchanged sharp words with Rice about Iran earlier this week. Beyond the legal and diplomatic implications, we need to examine the operational implications of Ahmadinejad's statements. The IAEA's inspection role can only only be limited to those factilities that it knows about. In fact, there is no way for anyone to know about what they don't know about, whether it is the IAEA or Western Intelligence. In practical terms, it means on the one hand that the IAEA may well give Iran a "clean" report if Iran simply satisfies all their formal requirements. That would make a settlement within the framework of the IAEA, the path that Ahmadinejad adopted, very convenient for Iran. On the other hand, the fact that there is really no way of knowing what Iran is doing or what it has, would tend to increase the risk of any projected attack on Iran, as well as making both diplomatic and military action politically unpopular. After the fiasco of Iraq, nobody is in a hurry to back a military adventure based on uncertain intelligence. Iranian officials denied a report by a dissident group that claimed Iran has secret nuclear facilities, but a different report in Kayhan, a paper close to President Ahmadinejad, seemed to confirm the dissident claim:
Ami Isseroff
Original text copyright by the author and MidEastWeb for Coexistence, RA. Posted at MidEastWeb Middle East Web Log at http://www.mideastweb.org/log/archives/00000629.htm where your intelligent and constructive comments are welcome. Distributed by MEW Newslist. Subscribe by e-mail to mew-subscribe@yahoogroups.com. Please forward by email with this notice and link to and cite this article. Other uses by permission. |
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Replies: 2 comments I do not think that Iran has any substantial secret nuclear facilities and the Kayhan report hardly provides any proof of the dissident's claims because the paragraph before excerpt written in op-ed says: "Is a new war on the way?... It seems that there is a need to precisely clarify, once and for all, why [the U.S.] cannot launch a war on Iran... All the questions and intelligence ambiguities that are facing the U.S.... make any discussion of [the U.S.'s] preparedness for an attack on Iran a joke, at best. That article is refferring to what the U.S. knows about Iranian facilities. The Iranian issue sounds much like the Iranian fiasco to me. Ahmadinejad is not the head of the Iranian military or foreign affairs. He can't tell the world when the issue is over. Ahmadinejad is just the excuse for the West to drum the beat of war. Posted by Butros Dahu @ 10/22/2007 12:14 AM CST I do not think that Iran has any substantial secret nuclear facilities and the Kayhan report hardly provides any proof of the dissident's claims because the paragraph before excerpt written in op-ed says: "Is a new war on the way?... It seems that there is a need to precisely clarify, once and for all, why [the U.S.] cannot launch a war on Iran... All the questions and intelligence ambiguities that are facing the U.S.... make any discussion of [the U.S.'s] preparedness for an attack on Iran a joke, at best. That article is refferring to what the U.S. knows about Iranian facilities. The Iranian issue sounds much like the Iranian fiasco to me. Ahmadinejad is not the head of the Iranian military or foreign affairs. He can't tell the world when the issue is over. Ahmadinejad is just the excuse for the West to drum the beat of war. Posted by Butros Dahu @ 10/22/2007 12:14 AM CST Please do not leave notes for MidEastWeb editors here. Hyperlinks are not displayed. We may delete or abridge comments that are longer than 250 words, or consist entirely of material copied from other sources, and we shall delete comments with obscene or racist content or commercial advertisements. Comments should adhere to Mideastweb Guidelines . IPs of offenders will be banned. |
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