MideastWeb Middle East Web Log

log  archives  middle east  maps  history   documents   countries   books   encyclopedia   culture   dialogue   links    timeline   donations 

Search:

Middle East Peace Conference: Plenty of nothing or a bit of something?

09/23/2007

An international conference can be successful if the different parties have something to offer each other that can satisfy the needs of the other sides. That is how bargains are made. On the face of it, the Middle East conference scheduled for this fall seems to be headed for disaster, because the parties either have nothing to offer each other, or are determined not to offer it.

Mahmoud Abbas needs a state and international support against Hamas. The Arab states are not willing to offer him the latter, while Israel isn't going to offer him a state as long as he can't control the Hamas and can't make reasonable terms for that state.

Israel needs security against terrorism and recognition and peace treaties. The Arab states will not offer recognition and peace treaties until the Palestinians have a state, and maybe not even then. See previous paragraph.

Abbas cannot offer security against terrorism because he doesn't control Hamas, and hardly controls the West Bank. Israel also needs support against Iranian nuclear ambitions. The Arab states aren't going to offer that, because they, evidently, have decided that the cause of fighting Iranian hegemony and nuclear ambitions is lost. The US isn't going to offer it because the US is too weak and divided to take any decisive action regarding Iran, because it is not certain if anything really and because they are waiting for Arab support.

The US needs Arab support in the Iraq war, but it is not clear what sort of support the Arab states could or would provide.

In view of the probability that the conference will not result in a Palestinian state, the Hamas-controlled Fatah Al-Aqsa Brigades in Gaza are calling on Abbas not to attend, since Israel continues to exert "tyranny" against the Palestinians. They are joined by Gideon Levy in Haaretz, who has the illusion that Abbas wants to perpetuate the rule of the Hamas, and should be indignant about Israeli plans to blockade Gaza.

Likewise, Israeli hawks could advise the Israel government not to attend the conference either, since "the Palestinians" continue to rain rockets on Sderot, and since Abbas has not given in on any Israeli demands, and can't deliver anything in return anyhow.

But we know that Israeli hawks are always going to advise against concessions, and we know that the Hamas don't want this conference to happen, and we know that Gideon Levi is Gideon Levi, still living in the reality of the last decade. These noises are all bargaining by the different sides and jockeying to get a better deal.

What the conference can accomplish firstly is the fact that it happens. A conference of states that support peace and are opposed to Iranian/Syrian threats is an accomplishment for the US and for Israel, if it is not a total farce. It is a blow to the "refusal front" and the forces of darkness. Israel will get an affirmation that at least some Arab states support its right to exist, in principle.

Abbas and the Palestinians can, at minimum, get two things that are very precious. The first, is that Abbas will get open support and recognition for his government and the PLO as legitimate representatives of the Palestinian people, as opposed to the Hamas government in Gaza. That is probably the most important gift he could be given at a political level. The second, is that even the most watered down and generalized declaration of principles will have to include, on the part of Israel, a recognition in principle of the right of the Palestinians to a state. Many of those who will say it is meaningless would be the first to decry the Balfour declaration. That document wash after all, only a declaration of principles, not even a real document of state, which the British government proceeded to tear up. Nonetheless, the ultimate outcome of the Balfour declaration was a Jewish state.

While the different parties can't give what they don't have, and can't be expected to give away something for nothing, they can all recognize a commonality of interests in building peace and isolating Iran and Syria and in stabilizing Iraq and guaranteeing the independence of Lebanon, and they can all give what they do have. The Arab states can come up with a plan of economic assistance for the West Bank, just as previously they supported the Hamas government, and they can begin to back Abbas unequivocally in policy statements as well. The US will need to come up with an aid package as well. Israel can make life easier for Palestinians in the West bank, even as they contemplate making life more difficult for the Hamas-controlled Gaza strip. Abbas could begin to use the new prosperity to put in place an effective government that gives Palestinians security from chaos, and at the same time begins to suppress terror. He would then be in a much better position to wrest control of Gaza from the Hamas renegades. On the basis of these confidence building measures, a real peace process could be renewed.

In practice, it probably won't happen like that. There is every indication that United States Secretary of State Rice is trying to paper over differences rather than laying the groundwork for any constructive progress at the conference, and that the other parties are all doing their best to be obstructive. The "refusal front," the US neocons and the Israeli right will attack the achievements of the summit conference no matter what they are. The conference may well be viewed as a signal failure for US diplomacy as well as for peace, if that is how the pundits and politicos want to spin it. But it doesn't have to end that way.

Hey, I can dream, can't I?

Ami Isseroff

If you like this post - click to Reddit!
add to del.icio.usAdd to digg - digg it

Original text copyright by the author and MidEastWeb for Coexistence, RA. Posted at MidEastWeb Middle East Web Log at http://www.mideastweb.org/log/archives/00000626.htm where your intelligent and constructive comments are welcome. Distributed by MEW Newslist. Subscribe by e-mail to mew-subscribe@yahoogroups.com. Please forward by email with this notice and link to and cite this article. Other uses by permission.

by Moderator @ 07:07 PM CST [Link]

NEWS

Middle East e-Zine

Midde East News

Opinion Digest

Late Updates

REFERENCE

Middle East Glossary

Middle East Maps

Middle East Books

Middle East Documents

Israel-Palestine History

Israel-Palestine Timeline

Middle East Countries

Middle East Economy

Middle East Population

Middle East Health

Zionism History

Palestinian Parties

Palestinian Refugees

Peace Plans

Water

Middle East

  

Blog Links

OneVoice - Israeli-Palestinian Peace Blog

Bravo411 -Info Freedom

Israel News

Oceanguy

Michael Brenner

Dutchblog Israel

Dutch - IMO (Israel & Midden-Oosten) Blog (NL)

GulfReporter

Israpundit

Alas, a Blog

Little Green Footballs

Blue Truth

Fresno Zionism

Reut Blog

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Blog

Simply Jews: Judaism and Israel

Jeff Weintraub - Commentaries and Controversies

Vital Perspective

ZioNation

Meretz USA Weblog

normblog

MIDEAST observer

On the Contrary

Blogger News Network- BNN

Google Sex Maps

Demediacratic Nation

Realistic Dove

Tulip - Israeli-Palestinian Trade Union Assoc.

On the Face

Israel Palestjnen (Dutch)

Middle East Analysis

Israel: Like This, As If

Middle East Analysis

Mid_East Journal

Z-Word Blog

Dvar Dea

SEO for Everyone


Web Sites & Pages

Israeli-Palestinian Procon

End Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: One Voice

Democratiya

ATFP- American Task Force on Palestine

Americans For Peace Now

Shalom Achshav

Chicago Peace Now

Nemashim

Peacechild Israel

Bridges of Peace

PEACE Watch

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Z-Word

Zionism

Zionism and Israel

Zionism and Israel on the Web

Israel - Palestina:Midden-Oosten Conflict + Zionisme

Israël in de Media

Euston Manifesto

New Year Peace

Jew

Christian Zionism

Jew Hate

Space Shuttle Blog

Israel News Magazine

SEO


My Ecosystem Details
International Affairs Blogs - BlogCatalog Blog Directory

Link 2 us
We link 2 U.
MidEastWeb- Middle East News & Views
MidEastWeb is not responsible for the content of linked Web sites



Please do not leave notes for MidEastWeb editors here. Hyperlinks are not displayed. We may delete or abridge comments that are longer than 250 words, or consist entirely of material copied from other sources, and we shall delete comments with obscene or racist content or commercial advertisements. Comments should adhere to Mideastweb Guidelines . IPs of offenders will be banned.

Powered By Greymatter

[Previous entry: "Lebanon: A forgotten agony"] Main Index [Next entry: "Giving peace a chance?"]

ALL PREVIOUS MidEastWeb Middle East LOG ENTRIES

Thank you for visiting MidEastWeb - Middle East.
If you like what you see here, tell others about the MidEastWeb Middle East Web Log - www.mideastweb.org/log/.

Contact Us

Copyright

Editors' contributions are copyright by the authors and MidEastWeb for Coexistence RA.
Please link to main article pages and tell your friends about MidEastWeb. Do not copy MidEastWeb materials to your Web Site. That is a violation of our copyright. Click for copyright policy.
MidEastWeb and the editors are not responsible for content of visitors' comments.
Please report any comments that are offensive or racist.

Editors can log in by clicking here

Technorati Profile

RSS FeedRSS feed Add to Amphetadesk Add to Amphetadesk

USA Credit Card - Donate to MidEastWeb  On-Line - Help us live and grow