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US Intelligence discovery:'Iraq at Risk of Further Strife'


Not since Polish cryptographers broke the code of the Enigma encoding machine of the German Abwehr, has there been such a breakthrough in intelligence. A Washington Post headline carries these ominous words:

"Iraq at Risk of Further Strife, Intelligence Report Warns"

"You don't say." For Americans, this is apparently a major breakthrough.

The Washington Post reveals:

In a discussion of whether Iraq has reached a state of civil war, the 90-page classified NIE comes to no conclusion and holds out prospects of improvement. But it couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests and fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption.

The document emphasizes that although al-Qaeda activities in Iraq remain a problem, they have been surpassed by Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals. Iran, which the administration has charged with supplying and directing Iraqi extremists, is mentioned but is not a focus.

"No conclusion" about where or not Iraq has reached a state of civil war. The compilers of the report took 18 months to reach "no conclusion."

The proper conclusion of course, is that the question of whether or not there is a "civil war" is irrelevant. There is no knowledge gained by putting a name on people getting blown up every day. Does anyone doubt that whatever you may call the goings on in Iraq, they are not pacific? They are preventing the implementation of U.S. policy goals for Iraq, and obviously, as long as Iraq looks the way it looks, call it civil war or uncivil peace. What is worse, after 18 months of study, the report cannot find the cause. People are just getting blown up spontaneously. Al-Qaeda is not the major threat, and Iran is "not a focus." So what is causing Iraqis to blow each other up? Sunspots? Bad vibes? The US presence in Iraq? In normal places people's differences of opinion about religious matters are less explosive. What is driving the violence in Iraq?

At least we can know what is driving US failure in Iraq. If 18 months of study could not even define the enemy in the conflict, the problem is that the US has no intelligence capability to speak of. Without intelligence, you can't find the enemy in a guerilla war. If you can't find the enemy, you can't beat him.

Ami Isseroff

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Original text copyright by the author and MidEastWeb for Coexistence, RA. Posted at MidEastWeb Middle East Web Log at http://www.mideastweb.org/log/archives/00000566.htm where your intelligent and constructive comments are welcome. Distributed by MEW Newslist. Subscribe by e-mail to mew-subscribe@yahoogroups.com. Please forward by email with this notice and link to and cite this article. Other uses by permission.

by Moderator @ 08:02 PM CST [Link]


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Replies: 2 comments

Read the first line, not that it has anything to do with the article but I believe it was Alan Turing, a British mathemtician who also pioneered logic machines, who was credited with breaking Enigma. Turings work in the (computer field) ended shortly after the creation of Fortran. He was a homosexual durring the time when Britan had laws that punished homosexuals with chemical castration and imprisonment. He did receive treatment in the form of chemical castration following a conviction stemming from his confession of homosexuality durring an investigation of burglary of his home. Turing commited sucide in the mid-50's after years of mental decline due to the chemical castration treatment which left him feeling inadequate as his work was his life.

Just a little FYI

Posted by OMFG @ 02/06/2007 07:34 PM CST

Just read the rest of the article. It is comical that our "intelligence" (I use that term loosely)department cannot arrive at conclusions that were evident to the common American over a year ago. I suppose if they keep denying reality it will disapear? Reminds me of a three year old who thinks he has turned invisible becuase he has covered his own eyes. Our "intelligence" department is nothing more than the PR folks for Bush Inc. I can't believe my tax dollars pay the salleries of these domestic propagandists, I want my money back! As for the state of Iraq and the neighboring states, Iraq obviously is a hornets nest. Iran could be considered the queen's chamber. We are dangerously close to poking the queen in the eye, which of course is going to earn us an arse full of stings. The US should begin a 6 month withdraw immediately while persuing dimplomatic negotiations with Iran. The US is already in an economic crisis and if we continue this path of war which is not only damaging to our world relations but extremely damaging to our economy we will end up like USSR. Being bled to death financially by Afghan campaigns was a major contributor to their fall. We should be spending our tax dollars at home to free ourselves from dependancy on mid-eastern oil. Step two would be to provide petro-alternative technologies to other non-terrorist supporting nations. In time this would starve the oil producers financially rendering them incapable of amassing the military capability to pose a threat to us as well as incapable to financially support large scale terrorist activities. this is our only long term solution. As long as we continue to economically support these nations we are complicit in any terrorist activies mounted against us! The US was once dominate in the world trade due to our once massive supply of natural resources: wood, iron ore, etc etc.., and the speed at which we could produce such products. All of our national exports as well as our domestic consumable material can only be refined with the use of, either directly or indirectly, petroleum. With the majority of our petroleum coming from nations who are enemies, they have us in a very delicate situation. We continue to pretend that nations such as Saudi Arabia Jordan, and Pakistan are our allies when the facts dictate otherwise. The US would do itself a great favor by freeing ourselves of their dependency and declaring a closed door policy with these nations and their agents.

that's my afternoon rant

Posted by OMFG @ 02/08/2007 07:13 PM CST

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