As is our yearly custom, below is a review of our Crystal Ball predictions for 2006. The correct ones are in bold, the errors are in italics, and those that are half and half are in bold and italics. Overall, by my reckoning, about 26 of the 37 (70%) predictions we made last year were approximately correct. There were also some nasty surprises. We did not predict the election of Hamas or the war in Lebanon and bombardment of northern Israel (failures we share with Israeli Military Intelligence and Mossad) or the subsequent face off in Beirut that is still ongoing.

The Israeli peace offer that was part of the platform of the Kadima party seemed like the surest bet among all the predictions. Because of the rise of Hamas and the war with Hezbollah, the predictions were only partly fulfilled, very late in the year, and the offer has not gotten down to details about borders yet. However, an offer very close to what was outlined below is being mooted by Israeli FM Tzippi Livni, and PM Olmert made a conciliatory speech offering prisoner exchanges and referring to the Arab peace initiative, and he did meet with President Abbas and promise to remove checkpoints.

Some of these predictions may seem trivial in retrospect. Remember them however, the next time you read that the US is about to invade Iran or that Bashar Assad is about to resign. Last year at this time I wrote: "However, this year there are numerous uncertainties. Once can at least hope we have picked out the right events to watch, but the outcomes may be quite unforeseen." We missed a few of course.

15. Hamas will get a large representation in the elections, but not a majority.[they won!]

23. The Lebanese army will not make a decisive move against Hizbulla.
[Deploying the army to the Southern border was a decisive move. It resulted from the unforeseen war.]

26. Though there may be a UN resolution against Iran, it will not include any effective international sanctions. [two toothless resolutions].

30. USA will withdraw at least some troops from Iraq before the congressional elections. [Troop levels are a bit lower perhaps, but there was no election-related reduction or demonstration to show "we are winning the war."]

33. Iraq will not "fall apart" into separate ethnic zones as is constantly predicted in different Web sites. [Not yet, anyhow]

34. The price of oil will remain above $55, because OPEC members perceive that the market can bear this level without undue inflation or economic slowdown. Continuing increases in demand will slowly force prices up.
[indeed it did - oil closed the year at about $60 after fluctuating well above that level. There doesn't seem to be a big production cut in the offing. ]

35. Iraq - Zarqawi will still be there. [He was killed]

37. Palestine/Israel - Al-Qaeda will continue to claim that it carried out actions against Israel. It may establish itself in Gaza and stir up trouble in Israel, PA, Egypt and/or all three. A convenient field of action is offered by Palestinian chaos and by the anomie in Southern Lebanon. Even if they don't carry out any actions, they can take credit for actions of the Hizbullah. [This seems to be occurring, though extent of Al Qaeda involvement is not minor] 

In addition to the above list, there was a "watch list" - issues that were unpredictable but important to watch:

Will Amir Peretz be replaced as head of the Israel Labor party if the party does not achieve victory in the polls?

Will Ehud Olmert have the political savvy and leadership to actually carry out a program of disengagement in the West Bank?

Will Hamas be willing to participate in negotiations with Israel?

Will Israel be willing to negotiate with Hamas?

Will Israel implement the safe passage between Gaza and the West Bank?

In the above list, Lebanon was forgotten almost entirely and the Hezbollah was not mentioned. Nobody was watching Lebanon! The issue of Israeli Hamas negotiations dominates the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The disengagement policy is probably dead, but Olmert's peace offer is of course still an issue, as is Peretz's leadership.

Ami Isseroff