Prof. Amatzia Baram of the University of Haifa, described as "one of the world's leading experts on Iraq" in a press release, is quoted as saying:

The death of Zarqawi signals the beginning of the end of the al-Qaida organization and of Sunni rebellion in Iraq.

...we are talking about a very import symbol who had great influence on the insurgents' morale. They received their inspiration from him..

Organizationally, too, Zarqawi was the most efficient executor of mass terror attacks, especially against the Shiites, with car bombs and suicide bombers.

I am not an expert on Iraq, and certainly not one of the world's leading experts. Considering the record of some of these 'experts,' being an expert on Iraq is not necessarily something to boast about.

It seems to me that Professor Baram is grossly exaggerating. The insurgency in Iraq existed before Zarqawi was really active there, and it doesn't depend only on Al-Qaeda. Al Qaeda itself is not a tight organization, but independent cells that will not be disrupted by the death of Zarqawi. As Baram himself notes:

"Most actions under al-Qaida's inspiration are carried out by independent cells...

But Baram does not realize, perhaps, the implications of the fact that these cells are independent. He continues:

that will now, in the wake of Zarqawi's death, need to think very carefully about the chances of their success. On the one hand, his personal example will continue to be a source of inspiration. On the other hand, his elimination will constitute a warning sign for potential terrorists.

Experts should not indulge in wishful thinking, especially if their prognostications fly in the face of what we know. It might be a warning sign, but experience indicates that Al-Qaeda is not impressed or disturbed by such signs. More likely that Zarqawi's death will be an inspirational martyrdom, or it won't have any effect. One of those possibilities is surely correct, but the odds are that the 'expert' is wrong. In Israel, the elimination of Sheikh Yassin and Sheikh Ahmed Rantissi as heads of the Hamas didn't really break up that organization, which is much tighter than al-Qaeda. The arrest of Saddam Hussein in Iraq did not put a stop to the Sunni insurgency, so it is unlikely that the death of Zarqawi will have much effect.

The important question is whether or not the Iraqi government can gain overall, systematic control and restore order and confidence. If it does that, then it doesn't matter if one or two rebel leaders are alive and in hiding or dead or arrested. If the Iraqi government cannot govern however, the bombings will continue. Zaraqawi will be replaced by a different fellow, and if Al-Qaeda in Iraq beaks up, the Saddamite Sunnis will pick up the pieces. Don't forget too, that Moqtada Sadr and his Shi'a Mehdi army are waiting in the wings to play their part.

It is not the end. It is not the beginning of the end. It is just one very good day in the life of Iraq. In itself, that is a pretty rare achievement too. If they can make it to midnight without a car bombing or beheading, it will be an even better day.

Ami Isseroff