Mistake number one is ignoring violations and problems as long as they are "not too bad." This was the nemesis of the Oslo agreements. During the period of the Oslo "peace process" Israeli settlement construction continued, but it didn't make headlines, and Palestinian incitement continued at a low level, and terror continued as well at fluctuating levels.

Now Palestinian violence has abated but it has not stopped. Sadly, the major factor that has prevented suicide bombings and attacks in the past weeks is still the presence of the IDF in the territories. The IDF has found 22 road side bombs in the last three weeks (more than a bomb a day) in Gaza, and stopped suicide bombers in the West Bank. The IDF has stopped suicide bombers and discovered explosives. The Palestinian authority is doing a bit to stop violence, but it is not ready to take over responsibility for security. Not surprisingly, in these circumstances, the IDF is reluctant to withdraw from Palestinian towns and remove checkpoints and closures that have choked Palestinian life, but have also stopped the suicide bombings. Only minor, cosmetic steps to normalization have been taken. The result is that poverty and unemployment and misery continue unabated. Palestinians are also bitter about the Israeli security fence, which continues to be a source of friction and hate, as well as continued Israeli settlement activity.

Disengagement is vital to the success of further negotiations, and it must be conducted in peaceful conditions. If Israeli withdrawals from Palestinian towns in the West Bank result in renewal of suicide bombings, no amount of apologies and rhetoric from Palestinian PM Mahmoud Abbas or from Ariel Sharon will be able to save the wreck of the peace process. Disengagement might go through, because it really is in the interests of Israel, but that would be the end of the road for the peace process. Fear of renewed violence discourages Israeli concessions before disengagement is complete.

Mistake number two of the Oslo process was that no real attempt was made to change the national goals of either side, which were headed for a collision course. We can see it happening again. Ariel Sharon's disengagement plan, formally approved by the government this week, represents a watershed in Israeli thinking, but it will not bring about the needed change if it is meant to be the beginning and end of Israeli concessions. Mahmoud Abbas's calls for non-violence represent a watershed in Palestinian thinking, but it will not bring about the needed change if it is meant as a temporary "Hudna" or truce for the sake of convenience. If the Palestinian leadership do not recognize that that the suicide bombings were not only a "mistake" but a tragic and immoral step, that coexistence with Israel is not a short-term means to the end of eliminating Israel, and that "peace" proposals cannot include ideas like return of refugees that eliminate or defeat the other side, there will not be peace. If the Israeli leadership doesn't realize that evacuation of Gaza and some settlements in the West Bank cannot be a gimmick that will allow Israel to keep vast territories in the West Bank, or bottle up Palestinians in a tiny quasi-state, there will not be peace.

Mistake number three of the Oslo peace process was that both sides did not make an effort to meet each others' needs even when it didn't involve any risk or loss of national honor. Danny Rubinstein, Arab affairs expert of Ha'aretz, notes that because of Palestinian dissatisfaction, it is taken for granted that the current calm is temporary. Khalid Amayreh reported the same thing in Al-Jazeerah. He quoted Palestinian analyst Hani al-Masri:

"Both sides need a rest. The Palestinians need to recover a semblance of normal life, and the Israelis need to revive their economy, which was hard hit by the near destruction of the vital tourism industry,"

Rubinstein notes that Marwan Barghouthi estimates that "Abbas has six months." Rubinstein adds that Barghouti should know. Elsewhere, Barghouthi was quoted as saying:

"The uprising will continue in the West Bank, which you (Israel) will continue to hold onto."

Indeed Barghouthi should know. He is the expert on the Intifada, because Barghouthi himself is largely responsible for instigating and leading the Intifada, by his own admission. He issued the same sort of "warnings" before the outbreak of violence in September 2000, and there is no doubt that if he is allowed to do so and as soon as conditions are ripe, he can and will reignite the violence from his jail cell. Now the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs agrees that violence could return after evacuation of Gaza.

In a sense, we are exactly where we were two years ago, but everyone is a bit tired. Palestinians have not given up violence and the Israeli government has not really gotten used to the idea that there must soon be a real independent Palestinian state next door.

If we really want to give peace a chance, we must ask for more from Palestinians and Israeli leaders. An interview that Abbas gave recently to Der Spiegel, summarized at the official Palestinian Media Center, provides both room for hope and room for alarm. The good news is that Abbas is quoted as saying that while Right of Return of refugees is not negotiable, where they return to is a subject for negotiation. Of course, return of Palestinian refugees to a Palestinian state should be their right, if that is what he means. That return, like the return of Jews to Israel, should not be a threat to either side, and is the sovereign right of every state. Moreover, Abbas reiterated that the law will be enforced, and there will be an end to unauthorized armed groups. However, he also said there will be no compromise regarding "illegal" Israeli settlements and that he would not use force against "resistance" groups. The report also said there are plans to integrate the Hamas and other groups into the PLO.

Palestinians must understand that while Israel is willing to evacuate Gaza, it is not likely to give up the settlements around Jerusalem such as Maaleh Edumim. That does not prevent formation of a viable contiguous Palestinian state, propaganda claims to the contrary notwithstanding. Changes in the 1967 borders are not a demand of the "Greater Israel" camp, but rather they are anchored in the Geneva Accord, agreed to by both moderate Israeli and moderate Palestinian leaders.

If Palestinians really want to integrate the Hamas into the PLO, it is certainly their business, but Israel must demand that the Hamas gives up its opposition to the very existence of the state of Israel, and disowns racist parts of its charter which claims, among other things that the "Zionists" were responsible for the French and Russian revolutions and cites a Hadith that describes a time when the Muslims will slaughter all the Jews, who will not find even a tree to hide them. The foundation of the peace process is mutual recognition by both sides and willingness of both sides to live at peace with the other. The Hamas charter is totally incompatible with those principles.

The Palestinian government can make any demands it wants to make in final negotiations, but there is no point to making declarations ahead of time that limit its flexibility, prime the Palestinian people to expect goals they cannot achieve, and probably would prevent the Israeli government from entering any negotiations at all.

The maximalists on either side still want us to believe that their programs can be implemented if only the people are stubborn and persistent. They pretend that the choice is between their programs, or "defeat." It is not so. Their programs are not options. The US and EU would not allow Israel to carry out the fantasies of the Greater Israel Camp nor even to keep substantial territories in the West Bank in a peace settlement. The Palestinians aren't going to wipe out Israel or set the clock back to 1967. The worst defeat would be the failure to achieve peace. Both leaderships have declared time and again that there is no alternative but coexistence, but both leaderships also continue to back goals that make coexistence impossible. It is time to tell people the truth and get them prepared for reality. Israel cannot keep the Ariel settlement and have peace. The Palestinians cannot convince Israel to restore the "Auschwitz borders" (so-called by former Israeli Foreign Minister Abba Eban) that existed on June 4, 1967. They cannot erase nearly forty years of history, including the recent Intifada, that have taught Israel some very bitter lessons.

In the immediate term, Mahmud Abbas cannot continue to declare, impossibly, both that he will not use force against terrorist groups and that the law will be enforced. If people with guns prevent law enforcement, how will he reinforce the law without using force against them? "Relative calm" is not enough. A bomb a day will keep the peace away, even if the bomb doesn't explode and is found by the IDF. The Palestinian Authority must get to the point where they are apprehending and holding the people who are placing these bombs, rather than leaving it to the IDF.

Israel must do everything needed for its security, but it must stop doing things that are not needed for Israeli security and which certainly hurt chances for peace. Here is a list:

House demolitions - It took sixteen years for the IDF to examine its policy of demolishing houses of terrorists, and conclude, very surprisingly, that demolishing houses does not make people love us. Unfortunately, Israel has decided that while houses of terrorists will not be destroyed any more (for the time being) houses of innocent people may be destroyed if they interfere with military operations or are a haven for terrorists. This policy must be reexamined.

Security Barrier (aka "Apartheid Wall") - The Israeli government chose to announce that it is continuing with the security barrier along a new route, modified to take into account humanitarian concerns as demanded by the High Court. The good news is that the new route will take only 7% of Palestinian land instead of 16%. The bad news is that the new route still takes 7% of Palestinian land. Moreover, the government stipulated an option to include the settlement of Ariel in the barrier. The security barrier remains a point of contention between Israel and the Palestinians. It cuts off people from their land, their jobs and medical care. It is the source of demonstrations and brutal Israeli responses. When terrorists were exploding themselves in Israel every week, the fence made sense and completing it was urgent. However, the fence was not completed even in that period. Now that there is at least a temporary lull, completion of the fence is not urgent. Wouldn't it be better for the government to suspend construction of the barrier until the security situation is clarified? Wouldn't it be better for the government to announce that it was opening more passages in the barrier, and that these would remain open as long as there is calm? This would create a real incentive for the Palestinians to keep the peace. Unfortunately, this is the Middle East. What makes sense doesn't happen, and what does happen often does not make sense.

Checkpoints - Checkpoints may be necessary for the time being, but they could be implemented in a way that was less onerous for the population. Insulting people, beating them up, making them wait for hours do not contribute anything to security. A way must be found to allow the unhindered flow of goods and of persons who are going about their business, so that Palestinians can get back to work, get to hospitals and get to schools, and feel the advantages of peace. If Palestinians continue in misery, and continue to believe they have nothing to lose by violence, there will be no truce and no peace. Israel has to give them something to lose by making war.

Settlements - Even while Israel is planning to evacuate the Gaza settlements, the number of settlers increased there, as well as in the West Bank, and the government approved investments in projects in Gaza that are supposedly destined to be dismantled or abandoned in a few months. It is long past time to declare a settlement freeze, at least a temporary one. It doesn't help Israeli security to throw away money on settlements that will be abandoned or to encourage the creation of more settlers who will need to be compensated. The freeze should continue as long the Palestinian Authority is making progress toward keeping order in the West Bank and Gaza, and the relative calm continues, creating another incentive for the Palestinians to keep the peace. It is also long past time for Israel to fulfill its obligations regarding dismantling illegal outposts.

Settler Violence - Settlers attack Palestinians, destroy olive trees and foul village water supplies. The IDF and the security service have done nothing to stop this barbaric behavior, which shames Israel and has nothing to do with security. Their claim that they are powerless to stop the settlers is a bad joke. The General Security Service and the IDF that can spot suicide bombers and ferret out Palestinian bombs cannot convince anyone that they cannot find Jewish hooligans and terrorists among our own people.

Prisoners - The release of only 500 prisoners by Israel, with about 450 more promised to be released, is too little to meet Palestinian expectations. A "concession" that generates only bitterness and cynicism is not helpful. Israel freed only prisonsers who do not have "blood on their hands" (were involved in terror attacks) and who have coompleted two-thirds of their sentence. However, there are still many prisoners and "administrative detainees" who could would not constitute a threat to Israeli security even if they haven't served out two thirds of their term and even if they have "blood on their hands." Some of these people are old or very sick, some are held on doubtful charges. At least, Israel should announce that it is willing to consider future releases of more prisoners, provided that the truce takes hold and becomes permanent.

National Goals - Both governments must decide and declare that publicly that in principle Palestinian self-determination and Jewish self-determination are mutually complementary and that each is a necessary condition of the other. A recent poll claimed that 39% of the Israeli people favored an "alternative disengagement" program invented by settler advocates, that would result in expulsion of the Palestinians. Even if the real proportion of genocidal Israelis is smaller, the results are alarming and indicate that a massive re-education program is needed if peace is to succeed. On the Palestinian side, polls likewise still show large numbers who favor violence, are not willing to live with a Jewish state or want to flood Israel with Palestinian refugees and void Jewish self determination.

The above program will not suit extremists of either side or professional "peace people." Those who call themselves "friends of the Palestinians" and members of the "peace camp" do not insist on such concessions from Palestinians, and confine themselves to demands from Israel. It is clear that anyone who does not insist on these steps is not a friend of the Palestinians, and is not in the "peace camp." The program will not suit Zionist extremists either. However, if these steps are not taken, we are headed down the slippery slope to the bad old days of the Intifada and the promises of peace and Palestinian independence are doomed.

Even before we "make difficult decisions," both sides have to prepare their people for those decisions. Even before we "take chances for peace," both sides need to do many things that do not involve great risk or difficult decisions, and show good will, in order to give peace another chance.

Ami Isseroff

Post Script - Palestinians have raised a furor over the Israeli cabinet vote on the security barrier and announced they will take the matter to the UN. An unecessary and unfortunate decision.