It was a pretty cold day for the Palestinians, but in any event they have not been getting many smiles from Washington since they began to totally ignore the roadmap. Contrary to what you might be reading in many places, there wasn't much new in Bush's remarks and letter at all. Shlomo Ben-Ami pointed out in an article in the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth of April 14, that President Clinton had already given tacit recognition to some of the settlements and to border changes in the Taba peace proposals he initiated. Likewise, Clinton envisioned that refugees would be settled in the Palestinian state and third party countries, and would not settle in Israel without Israeli consent. These same sentiments were repeated in a speech given January 7, 2001.

On the other hand, Bush wasn't the first President to favor a Palestinian state either, as stated in the Jerusalem Post, since the Taba peace plan proposed by Clinton included a Palestinian state, and he had expressed his support for "Palestinian aspirations" in his December 1998 speech in Gaza. Despite bluster by Yasser Arafat and others, there is no major policy departure for the USA in this speech. The US has always backed the official English wording of UN Resolution 242, which does not call for withdrawal from all occupied territories. The US has never said that settlements were illegal, though US spokespersons have said repeatedly that new settlement activity is an obstacle to peace. While the Israeli security barrier/fence/wall did get a somewhat warmer stamp of approval from Bush than it did previously, this too is not particularly new.

Bush reiterated, and made Sharon reiterate, that the wall/fence/barrier/ has no political significance in terms of setting boundaries. Bush did not grant US recognition to any specific Jewish towns beyond the Green Line, including East Jerusalem. He only said that he thought a negotiated solution ought to take into account Jewish population contentrations, and expressed his current views on the refugee settlement. It seems that Bush was as warm as he could be toward Sharon and Israel without actually saying anything new at all or granting Israel any concessions at all. He probably won't help finance the withdrawal and he won't allow Sharon to resettle the Gaza settlers in the West Bank.

As a policy statement, Bush's letter is more than nothing at all, and less than something. Despite the bitter words of the New York Times editorial about "Settlements over Peace" (see below) the fact is that Bush and the United States have not sanctioned any specific settlements. Bush's formulation includes a viable and contiguous Palestinian state, which cannot occur unless many settlements are evacuated. In fact, it can be argued that the US position regarding a settlement has not changed substantively since the Carter administration adoped, more or less, the formulation of the 1975 Brookings Institution Report, "Towards Peace in the Middle East" with the following key points:

1- Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories with mutually agreed border changes
2- Palestinian recognition of Israel and negation of violence
3- Refugees will settle in the Palestinian state or get compensation.

The US has never recognized the so-called right of return of the Palestinian refugees, nor has it ever been committed to a Israeli return to 1967 borders. I challenge anyone to find anything really new here.

For Bush, Sharon's disengagement plan can be a way of showing movement on the Israeli-Palestinian issue without having to actually become very engaged in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, which Bush is loathe to do, without spending a cent, and without any real US commitment at all to either side. Perhaps some of it was election ballyhoo. Bush may have picked up a few Jewish votes in this way, or perhaps not. Not many US Jews would vote Republican even if the Democrats were running Yasser Arafat and Ahmed Rantissi. Like his father and Republicans before him, Bush II will probably get less than 20% of the Jewish vote, even if he actually recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and OK'd kicking the Palestinians into the desert. The Jewish vote is not that large anyhow. We should understand that while withdrawal from Gaza is popular among Israeli Jews, it is not popular among most US Zionists. The right sees it as a concession to terror, and the left sees it as Sharon's way of terminating Oslo. The "Jewish vote" if there is such a thing, is not going to be influenced very much by Bush's letter.

Sharon needed the Bush letter, statement and visit in order to sugar-coat the withdrawal for the sake of his Likud party constituency, who will be voting on the disengagement plan in a somewhat bizarre referendum in May. Recent polls show a small but increasing majority favoring the plan, bolstered by the nice words from Mr. Bush. When the process is done, the net result will be an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in return for nothing at all, not from the Palestinians or from the US or anyone else. In addition to withdrawal from Gaza, Sharon also had to promise a settlement freeze and finally, real enforcement ("this time we mean it, no kidding") of the orders to remove the numerous 'outposts' that have sprung up in recent years. This doesn't sound like a bargain for Sharon, does it?

There are several reasons for this 'crazy' move by Sharon. The main reason is that Israel occupying Gaza is rather like a kid keeping his hand on the plate of an electric stove as it gets hotter and hotter. He may insist that it is real fun, but he is rather hoping his mommy will make him take his hand off pretty soon. Sane Israelis have been looking for a way to get out of Gaza for about 34 years or more, provided only that we could get someone trustworthy to take it. The natural resources of Gaza are violent fanatics, sand and an incredible population density, and its major exports are apparently terror and cholera. Finally, the Israeli government gave up and decided to get rid of Gaza even if nobody wants it and even if there will be no real government there at all. The 'Gaza first' or 'Gaza at all costs' plan was first put forward by Labor party candidate Amram Mitzna, but the planning probably went back to the Barak administration if not before. The Gaza settlements cost money, cause friction and tie down the IDF. The refugee camps that contain about a million people in a tiny space are a permanent photo-op for anti-Zionist propaganda, showing how the penniless Gazans are suffering under the oppression of the wicked Israelis. On the other hand, Israeli attempts to improve life in the camps or resettle the refugees were met with extreme resistance. Now they will be able to suffer under their own oppression or someone else's, but it will no longer be Israel's responsibility. Before the Israeli occupation they suffered worse, but hardly any photographers came to take pictures.

A large majority of Israelis agree about evacuating Gaza, regardless of political affiliation, though the majority may be much smaller in Sharon's Likud party than it might be in the Shinui or Labor parties, so it is a politically astute move for Sharon as well as strategically wise.

By adopting the plan of his adversary, Amram Mitzna, Sharon hopes to accomplish several goals:

1. Withdrawal from Gaza will free the IDF for more important work and save money that is being wasted on settlements and security for the settlers. This goal will be accomplished.

2. Withdrawal will remove an exposed flank that has always been a good issue for the Israeli left, a waste of money and a friction point with Palestinians. This goal will be accomplished.

3. Sharon has always wanted to delegitimize the PNA and formally put an end to the Oslo peace process. By its own actions and inaction, the Palestinian Authority itself already did this, though some wishful thinkers would like to believe otherwise. On the other hand, it is not so easy to wish away Yasser Arafat as a political force.

4. The withdrawal is intended to forestall pressure for specific "negotiated settlements" according to peace plans that would involve concessions Sharon is not prepared to make, such as withdrawal from Jerusalem and right of return. This goal was announced by Sharon in his Knesset speech. Obviously if the withdrawal doesn't satisfy the real needs of the Palestinians, it will not necessarily take the pressure off. However, for now, Bush has declared the roadmap to be the only program for peace that the US will consider, neutralizing the Geneva Accord and other initiatives. Sharon is 'safe' with the roadmap. He knows the Palestinians are never going to make the slightest effort to comply with provisions regarding stopping terrorist activity, so he doesn't have to worry that Israel will ever be required to fulfill its part of the bargain.

5. Sharon wants a free hand to deal with the Palestinians as Sharon sees fit, free of encumbrance by agreements and peace processes. If the Hamas sees the withdrawal as an occasion for a terror celebration, it will help provide the excuse for a very massive Israeli incursion designed to totally vanquish the terror groups.

This last goal may be the most important of Sharon's hopes for the disengagement plan. Former PM Ehud Barak boasted in an interview to Ma'ariv newspaper soon after the start of the Al-Aqsa intifada that Israel could wipe out the PNA in short order, it didn't happen, not under Barak and not under Sharon. In part, it didn't happen because of international pressure, especially American pressure, which restrained Israel on several specific occassions - notably after the Tel-Aviv Disco bombing, when Yasser Arafat promissed for the umpteenth time to do something about terror. In part, it didn't happen because the IDF felt it hadn't trained enough troops in the kind of close-in street fighting that such a move might require. In operation Defensive Wall, Israel suffered a relatively large number of casualties and it could easily have been worse. Lessons were no doubt learned. The IDF has always been able to learn from mistakes of that sort, though they are much slower to learn lessons that concern safeguarding human rights. Sharon is reckoning that after Israel withdraws from Gaza, we will look more like "good guys," and he is counting on his supposedly close relationship with the USA, which is not as close as he believes, and on the neutralization of the European Union in the Middle East, which is not a done deal either. Perhaps Ariel Sharon also forgot that while George Bush will not be president forever, the Israeli withdrawal will be permanent.

Some people in the Israeli government may be dreaming of inspiring a mass exodus of Palestinians like that of 1948, a nightmare scenario that is repeated by proponents of anti-Zionist hysteria. But the Palestinians are not going to go anywhere, because those who have remained through the Intifada have no place to go, and there is no country that will accept them. If there is any flight of Palestinians, European countries especially will raise a great hue and cry, ostensibly for "humanitarian" reasons, but actually because they don't want any Palestinians in their own borders, and they don't want to increase the payments to the UNRWA organization which is charged with perpetuating the misery of the refugees.

Meanwhile, however, Palestinian reaction has been a chapter out of the theater of the absurd, and has played directly into the hands of Ariel Sharon. Judging from Palestinian statements, one would think that George Bush had given Israel the go ahead to conquer more territory, rather approving of an Israeli withdrawal. While Bush reiterated his commitment to a two state solution, Yasser Arafat reiterated Palestinian commitment to right of return of Palestinian refugees to israel, which would make a two state solution null and void. Palestinians continue to assume that if they repeat the words "international law" often enough then their positions will somehow gain legitimacy. They reiterated their position, not based on fact, that UN resolution 242 calls for total Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank, a position that they themselves were willing to abandon in favor of territorial exhange. The Palestinians claimed that for some reason (see below) that Bush's speech, which simply reiterated the conditions of the roadmap, had somehow "ripped up" the roadmap. Nothing in the roadmap says that Israel is not allowed to withdraw. Israel has no obligation to occupy any part of Palestinian territory. Surely, nobody in Israel would object if the Palestinians were to decide to evacuate, say, East Jerusalem, without negotiations, in order to reduce friction with Israel. Sharon has managed to embarrass and confuse the Palestinians, but it is an embarrassment of riches in fact, and it is not clear who will be smiling about Israeli withdrawal two years hence, provided, of course, that the withdrawal really happens.

Ami Isseroff

Sources and Reactions
Bush Statement Press Release
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/04/20040414-2.html

For Immediate Release
Office of the Press Secretary
April 14, 2004

Statement by the President

I remain hopeful and determined to find a way forward toward a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian
dispute.

The Israeli Plan:

I welcome the disengagement plan prepared by the Government of Israel, under which Israel would
withdraw certain military installations and all settlements from Gaza, and withdraw certain military
installations and settlements in the West Bank. These steps will mark real progress toward realizing
the vision I set forth in June 2002 of two states living side by side in peace and security, and
make a real contribution toward peace.

I am hopeful that steps pursuant to this plan, consistent with this vision, will remind all states
and parties of their own obligations under the roadmap.

The Path to Peace:

I believe certain principles, which are very widely accepted in the international community, show us
the path forward: The right of self defense and the need to fight terrorism are equally matters of
international agreement. The two-state vision and the roadmap for peace designed to implement it,
command nearly universal support as the best means of achieving a permanent peace and an end to the
Israeli occupation that began in 1967. United Nations Security Council resolutions have repeatedly
spoken of the desirability of establishing two independent states, Israel and Palestine, living side
by side within secure and recognized borders.

Having these principles in mind, the United States is able to make the following comments.

Peace Plans:

The United States remains committed to the vision of two states living side by side in peace and
security, and its implementation as described in the roadmap. The United States will do its utmost
to prevent any attempt by anyone to impose any other plan.

Security:

There will be no security for Israelis or Palestinians until they and all states, in the region and
beyond, join together to fight terrorism and dismantle terrorist organizations. The United States
reiterates its steadfast commitment to Israel's security, including secure, defensible borders, and
to preserve and strengthen Israel's capability to deter and defend itself, by itself, against any
threat or possible combination of threats. The United States will join with others in the
international community to strengthen the capacity and will of Palestinian security forces to fight
terrorism and dismantle terrorist capabilities and infrastructure.

Terrorism:

Israel will retain its right to defend itself against terrorism, including to take actions against
terrorist organizations. The United States will lead efforts, working together with Jordan, Egypt,
and others in the international community, to build the capacity and will of Palestinian
institutions to fight terrorism, dismantle terrorist organizations, and prevent the areas from which
Israel has withdrawn from posing a threat that would have to be addressed by any other means. The
United States understands that after Israel withdraws from Gaza and/or parts of the West Bank, and
pending agreements on other arrangements, existing arrangements regarding control of airspace,
territorial waters, and land passages of the West Bank and Gaza will continue.

The Two-State Solution:

The United States remains committed to the two-state solution for peace in the Middle East as set
forth in June 2002, and to the roadmap as the best path to realize that vision.

The goal of two independent states has repeatedly been recognized in international resolutions and
agreements, and it remains a key to resolving this conflict. The United States is strongly committed
to Israel's security and well-being as a Jewish state. It seems clear that an agreed, just, fair and
realistic framework for a solution to the Palestinian refugee issue as part of any final status
agreement will need to be found through the establishment of a Palestinian state, and the settling
of Palestinian refugees there, rather than in Israel.

As part of a final peace settlement, Israel must have secure and recognized borders, which should
emerge from negotiations between the parties in accordance with UNSC Resolutions 242 and 338. In
light of new realities on the ground, including already existing major Israeli populations centers,
it is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and
complete return to the armistice lines of 1949, and all previous efforts to negotiate a two-state
solution have reached the same conclusion. It is realistic to expect that any final status agreement
will only be achieved on the basis of mutually agreed changes that reflect these realities.

Palestinian Statehood:

The United States supports the establishment of a Palestinian state that is viable, contiguous,
sovereign, and independent, so that the Palestinian people can build their own future in accordance
with the vision I set forth in June 2002 and with the path set forth in the roadmap. The United
States will join with others in the international community to foster the development of democratic
political institutions and new leadership committed to those institutions, the reconstruction of
civic institutions, the growth of a free and prosperous economy, and the building of capable
security institutions dedicated to maintaining law and order and dismantling terrorist
organizations.

Palestinian Obligations:

Under the roadmap, Palestinians must undertake an immediate cessation of armed activity and all acts
of violence against Israelis anywhere, and all official Palestinian institutions must end incitement
against Israel. The Palestinian leadership must act decisively against terror, including sustained,
targeted, and effective operations to stop terrorism and dismantle terrorist capabilities and
infrastructure. Palestinians must undertake a comprehensive and fundamental political reform that
includes a strong parliamentary democracy and an empowered prime minister.

Israeli Obligations:

The Government of Israel is committed to take additional steps on the West Bank, including progress
toward a freeze on settlement activity, removing unauthorized outposts, and improving the
humanitarian situation by easing restrictions on the movement of Palestinians not engaged in
terrorist activities.

As the Government of Israel has stated, the barrier being erected by Israel should be a security
rather than political barrier, should be temporary rather than permanent, and therefore not
prejudice any final status issues including final borders, and its route should take into account,
consistent with security needs, its impact on Palestinians not engaged in terrorist activities.

Regional Cooperation:

A peace settlement negotiated between Israelis and Palestinians would be a great boon not only to
those peoples but to the peoples of the entire region. Accordingly, all states in the region have
special responsibilities: to support the building of the institutions of a Palestinian state; to
fight terrorism, and cut off all forms of assistance to individuals and groups engaged in terrorism;
and to begin now to move toward more normal relations with the State of Israel. These actions would
be true contributions to building peace in the region.

# # #

Israeli Editorial Reaction
SUMMARY OF EDITORIALS FROM THE HEBREW PRESS
-------------------------------------------
(Government Press Office)
14 April 2004

Haaretz - http://www.haaretz.com
Ma'ariv - http://www.maariv.co.il
Yediot Aharonot - http://www.ynet.co.il
Globes - http://www.globes.co.il
Hazofe - http://www.hazofe.co.il
Jerusalem Post - http://www.jpost.com

Three papers comment on Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's meeting later today
with US President George W. Bush:

The Jerusalem Post comments: "Bush's guest today, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, can tell him a thing or two about what to do when you get in trouble. Say what you will about Sharon's disengagement plan, but it has certainly captured the agenda. The US is not thrilled about being forced to adapt to a new plan, but this is precisely what the US did to Israel with the road map, and turnabout is fair play... Bush's radical idea was to be the first administration to openly endorse a Palestinian state, but to hinge that endorsement on Palestinian regime change. In his June 2002 speech calling for a "new and different Palestinian leadership... not compromised by terrorism," Bush prefigured his push for transformation of the entire Middle East through the promotion of freedom and representative government... The question then, is not what to "give" Sharon, but when will Bush return to his bold vision of refusing to give in to Arab radicalism. Such a return to boldness would begin by ruling out the any Palestinian "return" to Israel as a matter of principle, not just through a supposed Israeli veto over the number of Palestinian immigrants."

Yediot Aharonot refers to Prime Minister Sharon and US President Bush as, "lame ducks." However, the editors believe that, "It cannot be denied that Sharon certainly took a great and dramatic step from a personal point-of-view when he chose to embrace disengagement," and suggest that, "Bush, the 'lame', can help him with an open and generous hand, support that Sharon needs so badly."

Hatzofeh asserts that: "The US still has not given in on the right of return; the US does not accept the six blocs of Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria; the US wants a return to the 1967 borders, with minor adjustments.; no Palestinian leader - even after Arafat - will agree to the six settlement blocs, and the withdrawal from Gaza is a free withdrawal that constitutes a capitulation to terror." The editors believe that, "Upon the withdrawal of the IDF, the Gaza Strip will become a factory for all sorts of weapons," and urge Israelis in the southern part of the country to prepare bomb shelters and sealed rooms.

...
[Eitan Haber wrote today's editorials in Yediot Aharonot.]

Haaretz writes: "The [Gaza Strip] evacuation is not serious, it is cynical, a transparent exercise
by Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz ahead of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's visit to President Bush in
Washington. Sharon needs American support to persuade the Likud rank and file to side with the
disengagement plan because without Bush, Sharon doesn't have a chance in the Likud on his way to a
vote on the plan in the government and Knesset. The defense minister needs Sharon because Mofaz's
position in another government is not at all certain... The evacuation of the outposts was part of
Israel's commitments made last year in the road map, parallel to the Palestinian Authority's promise
to halt terrorism. Sharon and Mofaz should have proved their seriousness during the brief days of
the Mahmoud Abbas government to help him appear to his people as having won achievements due to his moderation. But Sharon and Mofaz prefered to let Abbas fall, for Ahmed Qureia to rise to power but
to totter without any accomplishment, and then they delayed even after the Supreme Court rejected
petitions from the settlers against any evacuation. The evacuations now are not statesmanship, but
demonstrations for the media."

Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat declared Thursday that the Palestinian people will not
retreat from their goal of achieving liberty, national sovereignty and a state with "Holy Jerusalem"
as its capital.

Arafat was speaking at a press conference in the West Bank city of Ramallah, following an emergency
meeting of the Palestinian leadership called to discuss Wednesday's Washington meeting between U.S.
President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

He stressed that the Palestinians have the right to return to "their homeland" inside Israel,
despite Bush's declaration Wednesday that refugees would only be able to return to a newly-created
Palestinian state.

"Israeli crimes will be faced with more resistance to force Israeli occupiers and herds of settlers
to leave Palestinian land," Arafat said. He cautioned that "Israel will not achieve security through
occupation, arrogance and assassinating our leaders."

Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia was meanwhile reportedly considering quitting his post, in
reaction to Bush's comments that Israel could keep West Bank settlement blocs and that there would
be no right of return for Palestinian refugees to Israeli territories.

Qureia accused the United States of total bias against the Palestinians in a phone call with
Secretary of State Colin Powell, Qureia's office said on Thursday.

Powell phoned Qureia on Wednesday night and the Palestinian prime minister told Powell the U.S.
position was "an absolute bias against the Palestinian position, and we fully reject these
unilateral measures and their consequences", his office said.

Minutes after Bush spoke, Qureia on Wednesday harshly criticized the U.S. president's stand. "He is
the first president who has legitimized the settlements in the Palestinian territories when he said
that there will be no return to the borders of 1967," he said. "We as Palestinians reject that, we
cannot accept that, we reject it and we refuse it."

The political fallout from Wednesday's Washington meeting continued on Thursday, with the European
Union insisting there could be no unilateral change in Middle East borders.

"The European Union will not recognize any change to the pre-1967 borders other than those arrived
at by agreement between the parties," Irish Foreign Minister Brian Cowen said in a statement on
behalf of the EU presidency.

Cowen also said an international peace road map, in which the EU is a partner with the United
States, stressed that any settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict "must include an agreed,
just, fair and realistic solution to the refugee issue".

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said late Wednesday that Israel should talk with the Palestinians
before embarking on the disengagement plan.

He said unilateral action would only create more problems in the troubled region. "I think such an
initiative, from my point of view, should be discussed with the Palestinians," he said.

"To impose anything, they are going to reject it. That's why there's a lot of criticism going on now
[of Sharon's proposal]," said Mubarak, who met with Bush on Monday at the president's ranch in
Crawford, Texas.

Israel has informed Washington that it will implement Sharon's disengagement plan by summer 2005 in
an appendix to the letter presented to the president at their Wednesday meeting.

Sharon's letter to Bush also promises to limit construction in the territories. Talks will begin
shortly between Israel and the U.S. over what will constitute the "built-up areas" of the
settlements, beyond which construction will be forbidden.

U.S. Ambassador to Israel Dan Kurtzer will meet with Israeli security officials in the coming days
to discuss these exact boundaries.

In a separate letter to National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, Dov Weisglass, on behalf of
Sharon, will itemize all the outstanding Israeli commitments, including the evacuation of illegal
outposts and releasing confiscated PA money.

Talks will also begin soon on financial aid programs for Gaza, the Negev and Galilee. Israel is
seeking loan guarantees for $5 billion for those purposes. National Security Adviser Giora Eiland
met Wednesday with World Bank officials to discuss Gaza development. Sharon has mentioned the idea
of handing the settlements over to the World Bank, for it to decide how to use them for Palestinian
benefit.

Bush on Wednesday issued an enthusiastic endorsement Sharon's disengagement plan, calling it "brave
and courageous." In a letter to Sharon, Bush said "new realities on the ground" - meaning
concentrations of Jewish settlers in the territories - would have to be taken into consideration
during final status negotiations, that Israel would not have to fully withdraw to the 1949 armistice
lines, and that Palestinian refugees would return to the Palestinian state, not Israel.

In his letter to Sharon, Bush said the U.S. was committed to the road map and would do "its utmost"
to prevent any other political plan from being imposed on Israel. The letter backs Israel's right to
self-defense and combat terror from territories it evacuates.

Speaking at a press conference beside a beaming Sharon in the White House, Bush publicly stated what
his letter said: "In light of new realities on the ground, including already existing major Israeli
population centers, it is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will
be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949," meaning the Green Line.

Sharon said his disengagement plan would create "a new and better reality for the state of Israel"
and emphasized it would improve the country's security and economy. He was ebullient and joking
during his exchanges with reporters, saying he was encouraged by Bush's support for his plan.

The president said working together could help build democratic Palestinian institutions, and said
that Sharon's plan, which he termed as "courageous," could lead to a peaceful, democratic, viable
Palestinian state. He also said it is up to responsible Palestinians, Europeans and Americans to
play a role in developing such a state.

Regarding the separation fence being constructed by Israel in the West Bank, Bush said it should be
a security barrier and should be temporary rather than permanent. Asked by a reporter if American
policy in the Middle East is tilted toward Israel, Bush responded by saying the U.S. was "tilted
toward peace."

The meeting has apparently helped Sharon boost domestic support for his disengagement plan ahead of
a May 2 Likud referendum on the initiative. A poll published by Army Radio on Thursday found that 57
percent of Likud voters said they would support the plan, while just 25 percent opposed it.

In an unprecedented, dangerous move, US President George W. Bush gave Israel's premier last night full backing for his go-it-alone plan to disengage from the Gaza Strip and implicitly recognized Israel's claim to some of the West Bank's largest settlement blocs as part of any peace accord with the Palestinians.

The US assurances, which represent a decisive, historic shift in US policy on the Middle East, contravened the "roadmap" peace plan, which Washington itself engineered, UN resolutions and international law.

President Bush directly tilted towards the Sharon government by indicting for the first time that the Jewish state can retain six of the biggest settlements built on occupied Palestinian land in any final peace agreement reached with the Palestinians.

Under international law, all settlements are deemed illegal. The traditional American stance has always been that all settlements were illegal and the US administration used to deduct the sum of Israeli investments in settlements from the aid money sent to Israel.

About 92,500 Israelis live in the six settlements, which Sharon wants to maintain a grip on and annex to Israel - out of a total of 240,000 in the West Bank, or 400,000 if occupied east Jerusalem is included.

In a joint press conference with the Israeli premier Ariel Sharon at the White House on Wednesday, Bush also voiced unequivocal support for Israeli demands to ensure that any peace deal with the Palestinians should not provide for the thousands of Palestinians who were expelled from their homes
by Zionist paramilitaries in 1948 to return to Israel.

Instead, he stressed, they could return to the Palestinian state, which he insisted could still be established in spite of the assurances he gave to the Jewish state.

"It seems clear that an agreed, just, fair and realistic framework for a solution to the Palestinian refugee issue as part of any final status agreement will need to be found through the establishment of a Palestinian state and the settling of Palestinian refugees there, rather than in Israel," he said.

In a clear sign that he did not expect the borders between Israel and a future Palestinian state to conform with international law, the US president said, "In light of new realities on the ground, including already existing major Israeli population centers, it is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949."

The "roadmap" stipulates that a Palestinian state should be established by 2005 based on UN resolution 242, which specifies that Israel should withdraw its occupying troops to the "green line"-the armistice line of 1949.

Effectively, this means that Israel can annex and keep the settlements of Ma'ale Adumim, the largest colony in the West Bank, which Israel envisions will grow to the edges of Jerusalem, Kiryat Arba, Ariel, Givat Ze'ev, Gush Etzion and the Jewish settler enclave at the heart of the southern West Bank
city of Hebron for "eternity" as he had promised settlers.

Vehement Palestinian Rejection

The Palestinian leadership reacted vehemently to the outcomes of the Sharon-Bush meeting yesterday warning that the US assurances given to Israel would mean "clearly the complete end of the peace process" as well as security and stability in the region.

President Yaser Arafat met with his Prime Minister Ahmad Qurei and representatives of the different Palestinian factions in an emergency session Wednesday afternoon at his battered compound in the West Bank city of Ramallah to discuss the "dangerous escalation".

In a statement, Arafat stressed that the pact would prompt a "cycle of violence and end all the signed agreements" between Israel and the Palestinians.

"The US assurances are being made at the expense of the Palestinian people and the Arab world without the knowledge of the legitimate Palestinian leadership. They are rewarding illegal occupation, settlement and the apartheid wall," the leadership said.

"We call upon our people, the Arab world, Israeli peace groups, the UN and the Quartet [of diplomatic mediators] to reject this scheme because it violates international resolutions and international law, annuls the roadmap and damages the role of the US as a sponsor for the peace process." The
leadership further stressed.

Moreover, the statement said that the leadership considered the US assurances tantamount to a
replacement of the roadmap with Sharon's plan to "annex land, cement the occupation and expand
settlements."

Bush First President to Legitimize settlements

For his part, the Palestinian premier Ahmad Qurei (Abu Ala') voiced rejection of the US assurances
given by Bush to Sharon, saying they are "gifts that Israel is not lawfully entitled to nor are they
worthy of."

"Bush is the first US President to give legitimacy to Jewish settlement on Palestinian land," he
told reporters at his office in the Jerusalem neighborhood of Abu Dis.

"We reject this American stand and we refuse to deal with its consequences. We only adhere to international resolutions and the roadmap and we reiterate that final status issues, namely Jerusalem, refugees, borders, settlements, water and security cannot be tampered with by any internationa party." Abu Ala' further emphasized.

He also considered the American pledges the "worst bias towards Israel" undertaken by an American
administration, while calling for an immediate international conference to discuss the latest
developments.

'Death of Peace Process'

"I believe President Bush declared the death of the peace process today,"reacted Yasser Abed Rabbo,
a member of the PLO's ruling executive committee and the co-author of the unofficial "Geneva
Initiative" for peace in the
region.

Hanan Ashrawi, a Palestinian parliamentarian and former negotiator meanwhile said, "For the first time, American policy violates the basic conditions for peace."

Abed Rabbo contrasted Bush's statements with a letter that George H. W. Bush sent to the Palestinians when he was president in 1991, the New York Times relayed.

"The letter contained a very clear statement that key issues would be determined through negotiations, and not through unilateral Israeli decisions," Abed Rabbo recalled.

Palestinians said Bush's vows in fact give Sharon a "Carte Blanche" to move ahead with settlement-building on Palestinian land, which will make it almost impossible to create a viable Palestinian state.

Bush "wants the refugees to return to a Palestinian state that will not exist," Abed Rabbo said.

For his part, Palestinian negotiations minister Sa'eb Erekat told CNN that Bush's statement violated
international law, which viewed the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Golan Heights as temporary, pending a final peace settlement

He also said, "I don't think the president can negotiate on behalf of the Palestinians. I can't sit with [British Prime Minister] Tony Blair and give Texas to China."

Bush Breaks New Ground

"The message tonight to the Palestinian public is, 'Don't count on negotiations to help you achieve your vital interests,'" Khalil Shikaki, a Palestinian pollster and political analyst told The Washington Post. "The
overall trend will be more public support and more public demand for violence."

"President Bush has broken new ground here," Shikaki said. "I don't recall ever seeing an American
position being so one-sided."

Annan Criticizes Bush

United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan meanwhile criticized President Bush for the unprecedented US policy shift.

Annan accused Bush of ignoring the wishes of Palestinians and circumventing the peace process.

He also said unresolved issues should be determined by both parties based on Security Council resolutions.

Analysts meanwhile saw that Bush had softened his once-tough stand on the wall Israel is building
inside the West Bank.

Bush, who once called the wall "a problem," yesterday appeared to endorse it.

"I am strongly committed to the security of Israel," he told Sharon. "The barrier being erected by
Israel as a part of that security effort should, as your government has stated, be a security rather
than a political barrier.

"It should be temporary, rather than permanent, and therefore not prejudice any final status issues, including final borders," the president added.

If the deal reached yesterday with the Americans is implemented, Sharon would pullout all settlements in the Gaza Strip, where about 7,000 Israelis live illegally amidst 1.3 million Palestinians.

Some 92,500 of 200,000 settlers living in heavily-fortified colonies in the West Bank would stay.
[MEW - many more would stay - it is unclear what the above refers to]

When a reporter pointed out that former President Jimmy Carter had said last week that US Middle East policy is tilted too much toward Israel, Mr. Bush said, "US Middle East policy is tilted toward peace."

Letter from Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to US President George W. Bush

Dear Mr. President,

The vision that you articulated in your 24 June 2002 address constitutes one of the most significant
contributions toward ensuring a bright future for the Middle East. Accordingly, the State of Israel
has accepted the Roadmap, as adopted by our government. For the first time, a practical and just
formula was presented for the achievement of peace, opening a genuine window of opportunity for
progress toward a settlement between Israel and the Palestinians, involving two states living
side-by-side in peace and security.

This formula sets forth the correct sequence and principles for the attainment of peace. Its full
implementation represents the sole means to make genuine progress. As you have stated, a Palestinian
state will never be created by terror, and Palestinians must engage in a sustained fight against the
terrorists and dismantle their infrastructure. Moreover, there must be serious efforts to institute
true reform and real democracy and liberty, including new leaders not compromised by terror. We are
committed to this formula as the only avenue through which an agreement can be reached. We believe
that this formula is the only viable one.

The Palestinian Authority under its current leadership has taken no action to meet its
responsibilities under the Roadmap. Terror has not ceased, reform of the Palestinian security
services has not been undertaken, and real institutional reforms have not taken place. The State of
Israel continues to pay the heavy cost of constant terror. Israel must preserve its capability to
protect itself and deter its enemies, and we thus retain our right to defend ourselves against
terrorism and to take actions against terrorist organizations.

The Honorable George W. Bush
President of the United States of America
The White House
Washington, D.C.

Having reached the conclusion that, for the time being, there exists no Palestinian partner with
whom to advance peacefully toward a settlement and since the current impasse is unhelpful to the
achievement of our shared goals, I have decided to initiate a process of gradual disengagement with
the hope of reducing friction between Israelis and Palestinians. The Disengagement Plan is designed
to improve security for Israel and stabilize our political and economic situation. It will enable us
to deploy our forces more effectively until such time that conditions in the Palestinian Authority
allow for the full implementation of the Roadmap to resume.

I attach, for your review, the main principles of the Disengagement Plan. This initiative, which we
are not undertaking under the roadmap, represents an independent Israeli plan, yet is not
inconsistent with the roadmap. According to this plan, the State of Israel intends to relocate
military installations and all Israeli villages and towns in the Gaza Strip, as well as other
military installations and a small number of villages in Samaria.

In this context, we also plan to accelerate construction of the Security Fence, whose completion is
essential in order to ensure the security of the citizens of Israel. The fence is a security rather
than political barrier, temporary rather than permanent, and therefore will not prejudice any final
status issues including final borders. The route of the Fence, as approved by our Government’s
decisions, will take into account, consistent with security needs, its impact on Palestinians not
engaged in terrorist activities.

Upon my return from Washington, I expect to submit this Plan for the approval of the Cabinet and the
Knesset, and I firmly believe that it will win such approval.

The Disengagement Plan will create a new and better reality for the State of Israel, enhance its
security and economy, and strengthen the fortitude of its people. In this context, I believe it is
important to bring new opportunities to the Negev and the Galilee. Additionally, the Plan will
entail a series of measures with the inherent potential to improve the lot of the Palestinian
Authority, providing that it demonstrates the wisdom to take advantage of this opportunity. The
execution of the Disengagement Plan holds the prospect of stimulating positive changes within the
Palestinian Authority that might create the necessary conditions for the resumption of direct
negotiations.

We view the achievement of a settlement between Israel and the Palestinians as our central focus and
are committed to realizing this objective. Progress toward this goal must be anchored exclusively in
the Roadmap and we will oppose any other plan.

In this regard, we are fully aware of the responsibilities facing the State of Israel. These include
limitations on the growth of settlements; removal of unauthorized outposts; and steps to increase,
to the extent permitted by security needs, freedom of movement for Palestinians not engaged in
terrorism. Under separate cover we are sending to you a full description of the steps the State of
Israel is taking to meet all its responsibilities.

The government of Israel supports the United States efforts to reform the Palestinian security
services to meet their roadmap obligations to fight terror. Israel also supports the American's
efforts, working with the International Community, to promote the reform process, build institutions
and improve the economy of the Palestinian Authority and to enhance the welfare of its people, in
the hope that a new Palestinian leadership will prove able to fulfill its obligations under the
roadmap.

I want to again express my appreciation for your courageous leadership in the war against global
terror, your important initiative to revitalize the Middle East as a more fitting home for its
people and, primarily, your personal friendship and profound support for the State of Israel.

Sincerely,

Ariel Sharon

Letter from US President George W. Bush to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon

His Excellency
Ariel Sharon
Prime Minister of Israel

Dear Mr. Prime Minister,

Thank you for your letter setting out your disengagement plan.

The United States remains hopeful and determined to find a way forward toward a resolution of the
Israeli-Palestinian dispute. I remain committed to my June 24, 2002 vision of two states living side
by side in peace and security as the key to peace, and to the roadmap as the route to get there.

We welcome the disengagement plan you have prepared, under which Israel would withdraw certain
military installations and all settlements from Gaza, and withdraw certain military installations
and settlements in the West Bank. These steps described in the plan will mark real progress toward
realizing my June 24, 2002 vision, and make a real contribution towards peace. We also understand
that, in this context, Israel believes it is important to bring new opportunities to the Negev and
the Galilee. We are hopeful that steps pursuant to this plan, consistent with my vision, will remind
all states and parties of their own obligations under the roadmap.

The United States appreciates the risks such an undertaking represents. I therefore want to reassure
you on several points.

First, the United States remains committed to my vision and to its implementation as described in
the roadmap. The United States will do its utmost to prevent any attempt by anyone to impose any
other plan. Under the roadmap, Palestinians must undertake an immediate cessation of armed activity
and all acts of violence against Israelis anywhere, and all official Palestinian institutions must
end incitement against Israel. The Palestinian leadership must act decisively against terror,
including sustained, targeted, and effective operations to stop terrorism and dismantle terrorist
capabilities and infrastructure. Palestinians must undertake a comprehensive and fundamental
political reform that includes a strong parliamentary democracy and an empowered prime minister.

Second, there will be no security for Israelis or Palestinians until they and all states, in the
region and beyond, join together to fight terrorism and dismantle terrorist organizations. The
United States reiterates its steadfast commitment to Israel's security, including secure, defensible
borders, and to preserve and strengthen Israel's capability to deter and defend itself, by itself,
against any threat or possible combination of threats.

Third, Israel will retain its right to defend itself against terrorism, including to take actions
against terrorist organizations. The United States will lead efforts, working together with Jordan,
Egypt, and others in the international community, to build the capacity and will of Palestinian
institutions to fight terrorism, dismantle terrorist organizations, and prevent the areas from which
Israel has withdrawn from posing a threat that would have to be addressed by any other means. The
United States understands that after Israel withdraws from Gaza and/or parts of the West Bank, and
pending agreements on other arrangements, existing arrangements regarding control of airspace,
territorial waters, and land passages of the West Bank and Gaza will continue.

The United States is strongly committed to Israel's security and well-being as a Jewish state. It
seems clear that an agreed, just, fair and realistic framework for a solution to the Palestinian
refugee issue as part of any final status agreement will need to be found through the establishment
of a Palestinian state, and the settling of Palestinian refugees there, rather than in Israel.

As part of a final peace settlement, Israel must have secure and recognized borders, which should
emerge from negotiations between the parties in accordance with UNSC Resolutions 242 and 338. In
light of new realities on the ground, including already existing major Israeli population centers,
it is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and
complete return to the armistice lines of 1949, and all previous efforts to negotiate a two-state
solution have reached the same conclusion. It is realistic to expect that any final status agreement
will only be achieved on the basis of mutually agreed changes that reflect these realities.

I know that, as you state in your letter, you are aware that certain responsibilities face the State
of Israel. Among these, your government has stated that the barrier being erected by Israel should
be a security rather than political barrier, should be temporary rather than permanent, and
therefore not prejudice any final status issues including final borders, and its route should take
into account, consistent with security needs, its impact on Palestinians not engaged in terrorist
activities.

As you know, the United States supports the establishment of a Palestinian state that is viable,
contiguous, sovereign, and independent, so that the Palestinian people can build their own future in
accordance with my vision set forth in June 2002 and with the path set forth in the roadmap. The
United States will join with others in the international community to foster the development of
democratic political institutions and new leadership committed to those institutions, the
reconstruction of civic institutions, the growth of a free and prosperous economy, and the building
of capable security institutions dedicated to maintaining law and order and dismantling terrorist
organizations.

A peace settlement negotiated between Israelis and Palestinians would be a great boon not only to
those peoples but to the peoples of the entire region. Accordingly, the United States believes that
all states in the region have special responsibilities: to support the building of the institutions
of a Palestinian state; to fight terrorism, and cut off all forms of assistance to individuals and
groups engaged in terrorism; and to begin now to move toward more normal relations with the State of
Israel. These actions would be true contributions to building peace in the region.

Mr. Prime Minister, you have described a bold and historic initiative that can make an important
contribution to peace. I commend your efforts and your courageous decision which I support. As a
close friend and ally, the United States intends to work closely with you to help make it a success.

Sincerely,

George W. Bush

On the territorial front, however, the achievement is
only partial, and Israel would do well not to ignore
Bush's words. The American leader again promised the
Palestinians a viable state, and a state cannot be
viable when it is made up of patches of territory.
Palestine will be a state whose borders will be
determined in negotiations between the sides and
taking Security Council Resolution 242 into account,
and not by a separation fence being built today to
thwart terror attacks and so must be temporary.

In his comments, Bush did not mention settlement
blocs, but Sharon will want to grab onto the
president's comment that "new realities on the ground"
will have to be taken into account. The settlement
blocs are part of the new reality, but we must not
forget that this reality has another side to it: the
growth of Palestinian Jerusalem and the hundreds of
thousands of Palestinians who have settled in the
Jerusalem area and neighborhoods. The demographic
change started on the Palestinian side, with a high
birth rate and widespread poverty that serves as
fertile ground for terror groups.

One shouldn't expect that Ma'aleh Adumim will be
recognized as part of Israel because there has been a
change in the reality on the ground, while the
Palestinian neighborhoods in the Jerusalem area that
have expanded will be part of the state of Israel. The
meaning of the new reality on the ground in the area
of Jerusalem cannot be that the whole of the city will
be Israeli.

The main dilemma facing Bush was how to accept
Sharon's plan for evacuating settlements, but not to
make exaggerated concessions to the Israeli leader and
harm America's standing as an accepted and credible
broker between Israel and the Palestinians. Were
Washington to lose its status as a mediator, this
could also be harmful to Israel. An American mediator
is preferable to Israel over a European mediator
working hand-in-hand with the United Nations and
Russia.

Europe and the UN are pushing for full international
involvement - something Arafat has long demanded -
even before any agreement has been reached between the
sides, and even for the imposition of a solution on
Israel.

Any mediator, therefore, who wants to be accepted by
both sides cannot afford to adopt final positions on
matters of principle tied to a future final status
agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. The
area and borders of a Palestinian state, therefore,
cannot be determined in talks between Bush and Sharon,
or between Condoleezza Rice and Dov Weisglass. What
will remain to be negotiated between Israel and the
Palestinians if cardinal matters are determined today
without the involvement of the Palestinians?

Sharon's plan drew compliments from Bush, who defined
the moves the prime minister is taking as brave steps
that could lead to a historic process. Bush, however,
repeatedly referred to these moves as a beginning. The
expectation, therefore, is for the evacuation of more
settlements to allow for the transfer of more
territory to the Palestinians.

Arafat did not get a mention, but Bush expects that
the Palestinian leadership will also take brave steps,
will implement reforms and fight terror. A similar
overture was made on a number of occasions - in Bush's
speech in which he outlined his vision for the Middle
East, and before that by President Bill Clinton. Such
steps were also mentioned in the road map, in the
Mitchell Report and the Zinni mission. None of these
calls produced results, only more violence.

It has long seemed inevitable that a lasting peace would allow Israelis to keep some of the large West Bank settlements contiguous to Jerusalem and would offer, at most, a very limited right of return for the Palestinians whose families fled at the dawn of a Jewish state. But by accepting Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's terms absent any negotiation between the parties, Mr. Bush is essentially supporting Israel's right to impose a settlement of its choice on the Palestinians.

Mr. Bush's drastic and unfortunate policy reversal was announced as a beaming Mr. Sharon stood next to him in the White House. Mr. Sharon was eager to secure American backing on these issues in exchange for his plan to withdraw from the Gaza Strip, a decision that has proved to be quite divisive within his Likud Party. Mr. Bush, the affable host, obliged, just as two days earlier he had seemed to oblige a different guest, President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, at his Texas ranch. Then, as this page approvingly noted, Mr. Bush indicated that he was not prepared to approve Mr. Sharon's plans to declare unilaterally that Israel would keep its West Bank settlements on the Israeli side of the recently constructed security barrier.

Until now, the United States has insisted that boundary questions — which are central to any eventual two-state deal — had to be negotiated as a last step.

Mr. Bush's desire to give Mr. Sharon a prize for pledging to withdraw from Gaza will compromise any subsequent attempts by Washington to broker a lasting settlement, to put it mildly. Palestinians and moderate Arab nations — as well as the European allies, for that matter — are furious that Mr. Bush acceded to Mr. Sharon's demands.