4. Ariel Sharon will still be in power at the end of the year, despite corruption charges and a possible cabinet reshuffle due to his unilateral peace plan or evacuation of outposts.

5. There will be no real change or breakthrough in the Israeli-Palestinian situation, though terror incidents may taper off somewhat. Two panelists believe a change could come about only if Yasser Arafat dies or is removed from office.

6. Israel will continue to build the security barrier/fence. The Hague court, if it rules on the issue this year, might force some route changes, but the fence or barrier will be built.

7. Yasser Arafat will remain President of the Palestinian Authority and Chairman of the PLO Most panelists believed Arafat will lose power only if he dies of natural causes.

8. Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons in 2004. Three of four panelists were certain of this, one said "maybe." Iran is anxious not to upset the US while there is a large US presence in Iraq and George Bush is in power. Preparations for developing a bomb will require several years. The Bushehr reactor will not be online before 2005.

9. Israel will not attack Iran. Everyone agreed about that. Israel will not make trouble for the US in an election year, the attack would be risky and there is no hurry.

10. There will be no revolution in Iran. With the US so close, it is unlikely that dissenters will want to force a change.

11. There might be trouble in Saudi Arabia One panelist believes there could be a revolution in Saudi Arabia, which has been rocked by demands for reform from both democratic and Islamist forces, and has been the target of several terrorist attacks. A revolution in Saudi Arabia, a major oil exporter, could have major effects on world economic recovery.

12. No peace between Israel and Syria All but one panelist agreed there would not be a treaty, and most believe there will not be peace talks, despite the call of Bashir Assad for renewal of talks.

13. The situation in Afghanistan could go out of control. Several panelists thought the situation could get much worse, absorbing more and more troops, and perhaps leading to a loss of control in Kabul.

14. Russia's war in Chechnya will continue. All panelists seem to agree there would be no change.

Some possibilities raised by one or more panelists:

If Egyptian president Mubarrak dies, there will be an orderly transition to his son. Mubarak is rumored to be in poor health, but natural events are hard to predict.

President Pervez Musharaf of Pakistan will be assassinated, but will be replaced by someone with similar pro-west politics. There have been two attempts on Musharaf's life. One attempt took place today, one day after this prediction was made.

Mad cow disease in USA could seriously slow US economic recovery

Ariel Sharon will not be in a hurry to implement his "unilateral separation plan" because of right-wing opposition to evacuating settlements.

That's all for now. Check next year to see how good our predictions were.

Ami Isseroff