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Israel Election Polls - Left retreating - Jan 23 2003

01/23/2003

Five days before the election, there is little change in poll results. The Israeli public is unimpressed by revelations of scandals in the right-wing Likud, unworried by the dismal economy, the continuing Palestine-Israel conflict and the looming conflict between Israel and the USA over the Palestine settlement roadmap, and turned off by Labor challenger Amram Mitzna's vow not to enter a unity government.

The public has been listening attentively to the ultraorthodox Shas party, which promises voters a guaranteed place in heaven if they vote for Shas. From heaven, voters can keep on voting for shas. Israel has tens of thousands of dead voters, mostly Shas supporters judging from election results. Shas is working its way up to the 15 seat mark it will probably reach on election day.

A different segment of the public is also giving consistently increasing support to Tommy Lapid's secular Shinui party. Since Lapid will not sit with ultraorthodox in the same government, and the Likud's Tzahi Hanegbi has made it clear that the Likud would invite these parties to form a government, there will now be an additional large block of votes that is out of consideration for entry into the coalition. Shinui's popularity has worried political hacks serving the large and traditional parties, who have written numerous articles claiming that Lapid is a racist and insisting that contitutional government and ethical polics are not important issues.

Poll results are below.

Walla/Geocartography Poll 23 Jan 2003

Aaron Lerner Date: 23 January 2003

The following are the results of a Geocartography poll carried out January
22, 2003 of a representative sample of adult Israelis.
http://elections.walla.co.il/ts.cgi?tsscript=item.polls&path=2634

(results from 15 January in [brackets]

Knesset seats:
Right/Religious Bloc: Total 69 - from 60 current Knesset [70]
Likud 31 [33] Shas 11 [11] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 11 [10]
NRP 6 [6] Yahadut Hatorah 4 [5] Yisrael B'Aliya 4 [3] Herut 2 [2]*

* first time not 0 was on 15 January

"Center" Total 16.5 from 13 [17]
Shinui 16.5 [15] Am Echad 0 [2]

Left/Arabs: Total 34.5 from 47 current Knesset [33]
Labor/Meimad 18.5 [19] Meretz 8 [6]
Arab parties 8 [8] [includes Hadash]

"Other" Total 0 from 0 current Knesset [0]
Aleh Yarok 0 [0] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to
its platform to legalize marijuana)

Preview - Dahaf/News Wave Friday Polls 23 Jan 2003

Aaron Lerner Date: 23 January 2003

+++ Dahaf/Yediot Ahronot

The following are the results of Dahaf polls carried out January 22, 2003.

It should be noted that while the results claim to be +/- 2.8 percentage
points that is the statistical error associated with the raw poll
results rather than the "processed" results in the Knesset seat table

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 1200:
(results from 19 January in [brackets]

Knesset seats:
Right/Religious Bloc: Total 64 - from 60 current Knesset [64.5]
Likud 33.5 [32.5] Shas 11 [10.5] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 7 [8]
NRP 4 [4] Yahadut Hatorah 4.5 [5] Yisrael B'Aliya 4 [4.5] Herut 0 [0]

"Center" Total 20.5 from 13 [18.5]
Shinui 16.5 [15] Am Echad 4 [3.5]

Left/Arabs: Total 36 from 47 current Knesset [37]
Labor/Meimad 18.5 [19.5] Meretz 7.5 [8.5]
Arab parties 10 [9] [includes Hadash]

"Other" Total 0 from 0 current Knesset [1.5]
Aleh Yarok 0 [1.5] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to
its platform to legalize marijuana)

Have you decided which list to vote for?
Absolutely-final 81% [79%]
Undecided but almost certain 11% [11%]
Undecided 8% [10%]

Yediot Ahronot, January 28 2003

+++ Ma'ariv

The following are the results of a Ma'ariv poll by "New Wave" (a new polling
company formed by Yaacov Levy, the founder of the now defunct Gallup Israel)
carried out 22 January 2003:

Ma'ariv does note report the percentage of the respondents who refused to
reveal how they intended to vote but does not explain how the "refuse reply"
party seats were allocated among the real parties.

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 1,081 sample error +/-
3.2 percentage points: [result from 19 January in [brackets]]

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 65- from 60 current Knesset [63]
Likud 32 [31] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 8 [8]
Shas 11 [10] NRP 5 [5] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [5] Herut 1 [1]
Yisrael B'Aliya 3 [3]

[1.5% of vote is needed to pass the minimum threshold = 1.8 seats
the votes that go to parties that fail to pass the threshold cannot be
shared with other parties]

"Center" Total 18 from 13 current Knesset [19]
Shinui 15 [16] Am Echad 3 [3]
Different Israel 0 [0]

Left/Arabs: Total 36 from 47 current Knesset [37]
Labor/Meimad 18 [19] Meretz 8 [8]
Arab parties 10 [10]

"Other" Total 1 from 0 current Knesset [1]
Aleh Yarok 1 [1] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

Dialogue/Ha'aretz Poll Results

Aaron Lerner Date: 23 January 2003

To Ha'aretz's credit, they continue to report the percentage undecided:
16% - as compared to 16.7% last week. There is no indication how the 16% =
19 seats were allocated.

The following are the results of a Dialogue poll of a representative sample
of 876 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out on 21 January
2003 for Ha'aretz and published in Ha'aretz on 23 January. Survey error +/-
3.8 percentage points. Results for the previous poll carried out 14 January
appear in [brackets]..

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 65.5- from 59 current Knesset [64.5]
Likud 31 [29.5] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 8.5 [10]
Shas 13 [12] NRP 4 [4] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [6]
Yisrael B'Aliya 4 [3] Herut 0 [0]

"Center" Total 18 from 15 [17]
Shinui 16 [15] Am Echad 2 [2]

Left/Arabs: Total 36.5 from 47 current Knesset [36.5]
Labor/Meimad 18.5 [20] Meretz 9 [8.5]
Arab parties 9 [8] [includes Hadash]

"Other" Total 0 from 0 current Knesset [2]
Aleh Yarok 0 [2] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

* It is noteworthy that last week 100% of the respondents who gave Aleh
Yarok enough "votes" to take 2 seats said they were "certain" they were
voting for Aleh Yarok. It would appear that pollsters are having a problem
with people who think it is funny to say they are voting for Aleh Yarok.]

Chances voting:
Certain 71.6% Think yes 12.1% Maybe 6.8%
Think no 2.6% Certain no 5.4% Don't know/Undecided 1.5%

If Labor doesn't agree to join a national unity government, and Sharon forms
a narrow government, who would you like to see as minister of defense?
Total:
Mofaz 43.5% Netanyahu 11.6% Meridor 10.8% Olmert 0.7%
Lieberman 6.2% Don't know 25.1% Other 2.1%

Vote Likud:
Mofaz 66.7% Netanyahu 16.3% Meridor 2.3% Olmert 0.0%
Lieberman 3.3% Don't know 10.7% Other 0.7%

If Labor doesn't agree to join a national unity government, and Sharon forms
a narrow government, who would you like to see as foreign minister?

Total:
Netanyahu 54.6% Olmert 5.6% Shalom 2.2% Livnat 1.4%
Shitreet 14.1% Don't know 17.1% Other 5.0%

Vote Likud:
Netanyahu 74.1% Olmert 4.2% Shalom 1.1% Livnat 1.7%
Shitreet 6.3% Don't know 9.4% Other 3.2%

And if in any case a national unity government is formed, who would you want
as defense minister?

Total:
Mofaz 39.4% Mitzna 14.7% Ben Eliezer 7.7% Olmert 0.2%
Netanyahu 9.0% Vilnai 10.7% Don't know 16.1% Other 2.2%

Vote Likud
Mofaz 64.0% Mitzna 3.2% Ben Eliezer 7.0% Olmert 0.0%
Netanyahu 13.6% Vilnai 3.9% Don't know 5.4% Other 2.9%

Vote Labor
Mofaz 5.1% Mitzna 45.3% Ben Eliezer 7.2% Olmert 0.0%
Netanyahu 3.4% Vilnai 27.1% Don't know 8.5% Other 3.4%

And if in any case a national unity government is formed, who would you want
as foreign minister?

Total:
Netanyahu 36.7% Peres 35.8% Olmert 3.0% Mitzna 3.6%
Burg 5.5% Don't know 13.4% Other 2%

Vote Likud:
Netanyahu 56.9% Peres 23.1% Olmert 3.9% Mitzna 3.0%
Burg 2.9% Don't know 7.7% Other 2.5%

Vote Labor:
Netanyahu 5.1% Peres 69.3% Olmert 1.1% Mitzna 3.6%
Burg 11.8% Don't know 8.2% Other 0.9%

If Labor gets 20 seats should Mitzna resign?
Total:
Certain yes 26.1% Think yes 14.5% Maybe 7.3%
Think no 14.9% Certain no 21.9%
Don't know 13.6% Refuse reply 1.7%

Vote Labor:
Certain yes 7.3% Think yes 12.6% Maybe 3.7%
Think no 19.4% Certain no 47.0%
Don't know 8.0% Refuse reply 2.0%

Should Shinui forego its rejection of the Ultra-Orthodox and, as a large
party, join the government in any event?
Total:
Certain yes 25.9% Think yes 18.4% Maybe 6.8%
Think no 9.6% Certain no 23.5%
Don't know 12.8% Refuse reply 3.0%

Vote Shinui:
Certain yes 18.3% Think yes 15.8% Maybe 3.6%
Think no 14.4% Certain no 41.8%
Don't know 6.1% Refuse reply 0.0%

Do you believe Sharon intends to make "painful concessions" as he puts it,
in order to reach an arrangement with the Palestinians?
Total: Yes 37.3% Maybe 18.3% No 36.3% Don't know 8.1%
Vote Likud: Yes 61.3% Maybe 14.5% No 17.9% Don't know 6.3%
Vote Labor: Yes 19.0% Maybe 6.2% No 71.0% Don't know 3.8%

If Shinui is a large party and decides to join the government, what
portfolio is most appropriate for Tommy Lapid?

Total:
Education 19.9% Treasury 4.8% Interior 22.3% Justice 18.3% Other 3.4%
None 16.5% Don't know 14.8%

Vote Shinui:
Education 26.5% Treasury 5.9% Interior 46.2% Justice 12.5% Other 7.6%
None 0.0% Don't know 1.3%

[Ha'aretz 23 January 2003]

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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