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Israeli Election Polls - January 16-17, 2003

01/17/2003

It hard to generate interest in the Israeli elections despite their crucial importance because the race seems to be pretty much locked up. Ariel Sharon has not been hurt by allegations of widespread corruption any more than Nixon was hurt in 1972. After the elections, it may be another matter. Labor party leader Amram Mitzna alienated a bit more of his potential supporters by announcing he would not join a unity government. This is not a wise thing to do considering the popularity of the unity government among Israeli voters and the fact that Mitzna has almost no chance of beating front-runner Sharon.

Survey results show Sharon's Likud party with a healthy lead of 10 to 12 knesset seats. Weekly fluctuations are between three essentially right-wing parties: the Likud, the ultra-orthodox Shas party and Tommy Lapid's Shinui party. Lapid has pledged to enter a coalition with both Labor and Likud. What will he do if Labor will not enter the government? A secular coalition of Labor, Likud and Shinui would represent the majority spectrum of Israeli opinion. It would provide some hope that foreign policy decisions will not be dictated by the settler lobby, and it would open the way for constitutional law in Israel. Therefore, it will never happen. Even less likely - the above coalition with the addition of Meretz and the Arab parties, a coalition that could pave the way for a democratic revolution.

The survey results are below. Read 'em and weep.

Friday Polls 17 January 2003

Aaron Lerner Date: 17 January 2003

+++ Dahaf/Yediot Ahronot

The following are the results of Dahaf polls carried out January 15, 2003.

Yediot Ahronot continues to declines to share with the readers how many
respondents refused to reveal how they intended to
vote and, in turn, how the "refuse reply" party seats were allocated among
the real parties.

It should be noted that while the results claim to be +/- 3.5 percentage
points that is the statistical error associated with the raw poll
results rather than the "processed" results in the Knesset seat table

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 811:
(results from 12 January in [brackets]

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 63 - from 60 current Knesset [62.5]
Likud 32.5 [34] Shas 10.5 [10] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 7.5 [8]
NRP 4 [4] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [5] Yisrael B'Aliya 3.5 [3] Herut 0 [0]

"Center" Total 18.5 from 13 [20]
Shinui 15 [16.5] Am Echad 3.5 [3.5]

Left/Arabs: Total 37 from 47 current Knesset [36]
Labor/Meimad 20 [20] Meretz 8 [7]
Arab parties 9 [9] [includes Hadash]

"Other" Total 1.5 from 0 current Knesset [1.5]
Aleh Yarok 1.5 [1.5] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to
its platform to legalize marijuana)

Do you support the Labor Party joining a national union government headed by
Likud?
Total: Yes 51% No 43% No reply 6%
Voting Labor: Yes 33% No 63% No reply 4%

Asked Labor voters: Assuming the Likud forms the coming govnement, should
Labor join or be a fighting government?
Join 33% Fighting opposition 63% No reply 4%

Assuming the Likud forms the coming government, will Labor join?
Total: Yes 57% No 31% Don't know 12%
Voting Labor: Yes 46% No 46% Don't know 8%

Assuming the Likud forms the coming government, what do you want?
Right 19% Secular 41% Like before 35% No reply 15%

Is Ariel Sharon a trustworthy prime minister?
Yes 61% No 35% No reply 4%

If Sharon is elected to prime minister will he serve the full term or forced
to resign because of the scandals he and his sons are tied to?
Serve term 53% Resign 32% No reply 15%

Which party will better handle the following when they lead the government?

Security situation:
Likud 51% Labor 26% Neither 15% Same 4% No reply 4%

Economic situation:
Likud 25% Labor 37% Neither 24% Same 5% No reply 9%

Battle against corruption:
Likud 15% Labor 25% Neither 39% Same 10% No reply 11%

Closing gaps:
Likud 25% Labor 34% Neither 28% Same 6% No reply 7%

Preserving the Jewish character of Israel:
Likud 57% Labor 9% Neither 16% Same 9% No reply 9%

Yediot Ahronot, January 17 2003

+++ Ma'ariv

The following are the results of a Ma'ariv poll by "New Wave" (a new polling
company formed by Yaacov Levy, the founder of the now defunct Gallup Israel)
carried out 15 January 2003:

Ma'ariv reports 15% of the respondents refused to reveal how they intended
to vote but does not explain how the "refuse reply" party seats were
allocated among the real parties.

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 1,036 sample error +/-
3 percentage points: [result from 12 January in [brackets]]

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 65- from 60 current Knesset [63]
Likud 32 [32] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 9 [9]
Shas 10 [9] NRP 5 [4] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [5] Herut 1 [1]
Yisrael B'Aliya 3 [3]
[1.5% of vote is needed to pass the minimum threshold = 1.8 seats
the votes that go to parties that fail to pass the threshold cannot be
shared with other parties]

"Center" Total 18 from 13 current Knesset [16]
Shinui 15 [13] Am Echad 3 [3]
Different Israel 0 [0]

Left/Arabs: Total 36 from 47 current Knesset [39]
Labor/Meimad 19 [20] Meretz 7 [8]
Arab parties 10 [11]

"Other" Total 1 from 0 current Knesset [2]
Aleh Yarok 1 [2] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

If there were still direct elections:
Sharon 51% Mitzna 27% Don't know 22%
Netanyahu 45% Mitzna 31% Don't know 24%
Sharon 47% Mitzna 26% Lapid 10% Don't know 17%

Do you support establishing a national unity government after the elections?
Yes 59% No 28% Don't know 13%
Vote Labor: Yes 54% No 34%

If choice were a national unity government headed by Mitzna and narrow Right
wing government headed by Sharon:
Narrow Right 45% National unity 35% Don't know 20%

Mitzna and the Labor Party announced this week that they will not agree to
joining in a national unity government headed by Sharon. Do you believe
them?
Yes 22% No 66% Don't know 12%
Vote Labor: Yes 53% No 36%

If Labor doesn't join will Shinui?
Yes 49% No 27% Don't know 24%

Have you watched at least one election campaign broadcast?
Yes 58% No 42%

To what extent will the upcomming elecitons change things in teh state?
A lot 12% A little 26% Not at all 52% Don't know 10%

Do you feel hope or disappear?
Hope 56% Despair 37% Don't know 7%

Do you feel wealth or shortage?
Wealth 30% Shortage 57% Don't know 13%

Do you feel secure or fear?
Secure 40% Fear 47% Don't now 13%

Of the follow leaders do you like them?
Yes 60% No 35% Don't know 5% Sharon
Yes 42% No 45% Don't know 13% Lapid
Yes 36% No 54% Don't know 10% Mitzna
Yes 35% No 55% Don't know 10% Lieberman
Yes 35% No 57% Don't know 8% Sarid
Yes 20% No 66% Don't know 14% Eli Yishai

Percent say they like by group:
Immigrants 83% Arabs 11% Right 87% Center 66% Left 17% Sharon
Immigrants 46% Arabs 23% Right 36% Center 65% Left 43% Lapid
Immigrants 14% Arabs 53% Right 08% Center 49% Left 78% Mitzna
Immigrants 67% Arabs 04% Right 59% Center 22% Left 08% Lieberman
Immigrants 16% Arabs 69% Right 12% Center 34% Left 75% Sarid
Immigrants 07% Arabs 09% Right 32% Center 15% Left 06% Eli Yishai

Do you have confidence in the following?
Yes 81% No 16% Don't know 3% IDF
Yes 76% No 18% Don't know 6% Supreme Court
Yes 67% No 27% Don't know 6% Police
Yes 64% No 24% Don't know 12% Attorney General
Yes 44% No 49% Don't know 7% Media
Yes 40% No 49% Don't know 11% Government ministries
Yes 17% No 76% Don't know 7% Political system

Percent say they have confidence by group
IDF:
Right 90% Left 65% Center 92% Ultraorthodox 60%
Secular 93% Immigrants 92% Arabs 18%

Supreme Court
Right 67% Left 92% Center 86% Ultraorthodox 17%
Secular 81% Immigrants 61% Arabs 84%

Police
Right 69% Left 67% Center 73% Ultraorthodox 50%
Secular 71% Immigrants 57% Arabs 50%

Attorney General
Right 56% Left 75% Center 76% Ultraorthodox 23%
Secular 72% Immigrants 43% Arabs 59%

Media
Right 32% Left 64% Center 51% Ultraorthodox 6%
Secular 56% Immigrants 54% Arabs 45%

Government ministries
Right 43% Left 41% Center 36% Ultraorthodox 34%
Secular 36% Immigrants 38% Arabs 42%

Political system
Right 19% Left 16% Center 15% Ultraorthodox 11%
Secular 17% Immigrants 25% Arabs 16%

Ma'ariv 17 January 2003

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
Website: http://www.imra.org.il


Globes Poll 16 January 2003

Aaron Lerner Date: 16 January 2003

Globes-Smith survey: 47% believe elections unimportant

The telephone survey was conducted by Hanoch and Rafi Smith on Tuesday,
January 14, 2002, among 502 respondents representing the adult population in
Israel. The maximum sample error is 4.4%.

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 61 - from 60 current Knesset
Likud 32 Shas 9 National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 8
NRP 4 Yahadut Hatorah 5 Yisrael B'Aliya 3 Herut 0

"Center" Total 20 from 13
Shinui 17 Am Echad 3

Left/Arabs: Total 38 from 47 current Knesset
Labor/Meimad 19 Meretz 10
Arab parties 9

"Other" Total 1 from 0 current Knesset [1 is below the 1.5% threshold]
Aleh Yarok 1 (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

Q: To what degree are you sure of whom you will vote for in the upcoming
Knesset elections?

A: Completely sure 52%; leaning, but not sure 21%; still don't know 12%;
will not vote/no response 15%.

The preceding survey results were: Completely sure 55%; leaning, but not
sure 18%; still don't know 18%; will not vote/no response 9%.

Q: Including all aspects: political, personal, and moral, how would you rate
Ariel Sharon as a prime minister and political leader?

A: Very good 19%; fairly good 34%; poor 23%; very poor 22%; no response 2%.

Aggregate results: Positive 53%, negative 45%.

Q: Is there anyone in Israel capable of doing a better job as prime minister
than Ariel Sharon?

A: Yes 43%; no 51%, no response 6%.

10% of Labor Party voters believe there is no one better, and 59% are
undecided on this point.

Q: How important are the upcoming elections?

A: Very important 27%; fairly important 25%; not so important 21%,
unimportant 26%; no response 1%.

Aggregate: Important 52%; unimportant 47%.

Globes 16 January 2003

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
Website: http://www.imra.org.il


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*
IDF Poll: Likud Up to 33 Knesset Seats, Labor Down to
19, Sharon Popularity High
16 Jan 03

Twelve days before the general elections, the gap between the Likud and the Labor Party is growing. In a poll by the Geocartographia Institute, headed by Professor Avi Degani that was held yesterday and released this morning, the Likud has gone up to 33 Knesset seats and the Labor Party has gone down to 19 seats. Ari'el Sharon continues to enjoy high personal credibility with 61% of the public saying it believes that the reports about various suspicions against him and his sons were aimed at harming Sharon prior to theelections.

Regarding unity government, some 12% of Labor Party voters say that they will vote for a different party following Labor Party Chairman Amram Mitzna's announcement that he would not join a unity government headed by Sharon.

In the Labor Party voices expressing concern are growing in the wake of their growing weakness in the
polls despite the pronouncement that the party would not enter a unity government headed by Sharon. Senior Labor Party sources said this morning: We will stand behind Mitzna until 28 January, because that is the order of the day, but he must remember that once he decided on that move, he is fully responsible for it, and he will have to bear the consequences of his decision if the situation does not improve.

Labor Party MK Avraham Shohat said this morning: Even if we lose, I think that Mitzna should remain No. 1. Likud Minister Limor Livnat said that contrary to the pronouncements, if Labor Party loses, its leaders will want to rejoin a unity government even without Mitzna.

[IDF Radio in Hebrew]
*
Dialogue/Ha'aretz Poll Results

Aaron Lerner Date: 16 January 2003

To Ha'aretz's credit, this week they show the percentage undecided in a
graph - 16.7% this week, up from 11.2% last week.

There is no indication how the 16.7% = 20 seats were allocated.

The following are the results of a Dialogue poll of a representative sample
of 840 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out on 14 January
2003 for Ha'aretz and published in Ha'aretz on 15 January. Survey error +/-
3.4 percentage points. Results for the previous poll carried out 7 January
appear in [brackets]..

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 64.5- from 59 current Knesset [61]
Likud 29.5 [27] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 10 [9]
Shas 12 [13] NRP 4 [4] Yahadut Hatorah 6 [5]
Yisrael B'Aliya 3 [3] Herut 0 [0]

"Center" Total 17 from 15 [19]
Shinui 15 [17] Am Echad 2 [2]

Left/Arabs: Total 36.5 from 47 current Knesset [40]
Labor/Meimad 20 [24] Meretz 8.5 [8]
Arab parties 8 [8] [includes Hadash]

"Other" Total 2 from 0 current Knesset [0]
Aleh Yarok 2 [0] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

Percentage who replied certain they are voting for party they said they were
voting for:

Likud 80.7% National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 46.2%
Shas 79.3% NRP 80.4% Yahadut Hatorah 87.1%
Yisrael B'Aliya 75.8%

Shinui 62.4% Am Echad not reported
Labor/Meimad 82.8% Meretz 76%
Hadash 85.2% Ra'am (an Arab party) 84.9%
Aleh Yarok 100%

If elections were tomorrow what are the odds you would vote?
Certain 70% Think yes 9.8% Maybe 9.8%
Think no 3.5% Certain no 5.5% Don't know 1.4%

Did the declaration of the heads of the Labor Party that they will not join
a national union government headed by Sharon effect their chances you will
vote for Labor?

Total:
Increase 13.7% No impact 31.4% Decrease 28.2%
Didn't hear 1.6% Refuse reply 6.2% Won't vote Labor 18.9%

Voting Shinui:
Increase 12.5% No impact 38.7% Decrease 27.7%
Didn't hear 0% Refuse reply 1.4% Won't vote Labor 19.7%

Undecided:
Increase 8.7% No impact 34.6% Decrease 24.7%
Didn't hear 2.6% Refuse reply 14.3% Won't vote Labor 15.1%

Do you believe the declaration of the heads of the Labor Party that they
will not join a national union government?

Total:
Yes 18.8% Middle 14.3% No 57.5% Didn't hear 2.1% Refuse reply 7.3%

Voting Likud:
Yes 11.3% Middle 8.2% No 75.6% Didn't hear 1.6% Refuse reply 3.4%

Voting Labor:
Yes 43.7% Middle 24.3% No 30.1% Didn't hear 0% Refuse reply 1.9%

How was Sharon's activity in the incident of the loan from the South African
millionaire?
Corrupt 20.5% Inept 27.3 Without intent 18.4%
Perfectly clean 10.4% Don't know 18.7% Refuse reply 4.7%

Which party is more corrupt - Labor or Likud?
Labor 10.9% Likud 26.1% Both same 48.6%
Neither 1.4% Don't know 13%
[Ha'aretz 16 January 2003]

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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