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Israel Election Polls - Sharon bounces back: Jan 12, 03

01/14/2003

Though the Likud party was hurt temporarily by allegations of scandal, Ariel Sharon's televised campaign speech (see previous posting) that blamed the whole affair on a vile plot of the
Labor party was convincing enough to bring many voters back, though none of the issues were
resolved.

Polls released on Sunday indicate that the Likud has recovered its lead, as its commercials lash out at Labor for trying to "Shut up the PM." Sharon's press conference was stopped by Central Election Committee head Judge Cheshin, whose political affiliations are not known or relevant.

Note that the two polls summarized below consistently show better results for the right than the Ha'aretz dialog poll, that had previously predicted as many as 24 seats for Labor, and as few as 27 for the Likud. In actual elections, the Shas party has always done much better than is predicted by the opinion polls.

[The arithmetic formula given below refers to the confidence limits for the standard error according to the normal distribution. There is no statistical way to determine the actual effect of undecided and refuse to answer responses. Past experiences have shown that ultraorthodox voters ofen refuse to answer opinion surveys in disproportionately large numbers, and that right-wing voters may also be uncooperative with pollsters who are seen to represent the "leftist" media. Israeli voting rolls include about 40,000 persons over age 120, and a substantial number of these persons, apparently deceased may vote in the elections, usually for the Shas party. They cannot usually participate in opinion polls. All comments below are by Aaron Lerner who translated the polls. A.I.]


Sunday Night Polls 12 January 2003

Date: 13 January 2003

Reference: Current seats in the Knesset:
Right/Religious Bloc: 60
Likud 21 Shas 17 National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 7
NRP 5 Yahadut Hatorah 5 Yisrael B'Aliya 4 Herut 1
[Herut has one seat since MK Kleiner split from National Union. Due to the
1.5% vote threshold it is impossible for a party to be in the Knesset with
only one seat]

"Center" Total 13
Shinui 6 Am Echad 2 Central Party 5 (MK's all went to other parties)

Left/Arabs: Total 47
Labor/Meimad 25 Meretz 10 Arab parties 12

+++ Dahaf/Yediot Ahronot

The following are the results of Dahaf polls carried out January 12, 2003.

Yediot Ahronot continues to declines to share with the readers how many
respondents refused to reveal how they intended to
vote and, in turn, how the "refuse reply" party seats were allocated among
the real parties.

It should be noted that while the results claim to be +/- 4.0 percentage
points that is the statistical error associated with the raw poll
results rather than the "processed" results in the Knesset seat table

It is also not clear what statistical formula Dahaf is using [though it
would appear to be the traditional
1.96 * [((p*(1-p))/n)**0.5] where p=0.5 and n=sample size that assumes a
normally distributed random sample] even though Mina Tzamach said in an
article that appeared in last Friday's Ha'aretz Magazine that 40% of those
called refuse to participate in the polls. Unless the propensity to decline
to participate is random with respect to the polling questions this is a
built in bias. The article also reports that two weeks ago the "undecided"
in the Dahaf poll was 20%.

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 653:
(results from 8 January in [brackets]

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 62.5- from 60 current Knesset [63]
Likud 32.5 [28] Shas 10 [10.5] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 8 [10.5]
NRP 4 [5] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [5] Yisrael B'Aliya 3 [4] Herut 0 [0]

"Center" Total 20.0 from 13 [20.5]
Shinui 16.5 [17] Am Echad 3.5 [3.5]

Left/Arabs: Total 36 from 47 current Knesset [36.5]
Labor/Meimad 20 [21.5] Meretz 7 [7]
Arab parties 9 [8] [includes Hadash]

"Other" Total 1.5 from 0 current Knesset [0]
Aleh Yarok 1.5 [0] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

Did Sharon's explanation of the $1.5 million loan to his sons incident
convince you?
Yes 35% N 47% No reply 3% [no reply must be a typo]

Was Cheshin correct when he stopped broadcast of Sharon's press conference
claiming that it was election propaganda?
Yes 47% No 42% No reply 11%

Yediot Ahronot, 13 January 2003 for party vote and 10 January for remainder

+++ Ma'ariv

The following are the results of a Ma'ariv poll by "New Wave" (a new polling
company formed by Yaacov Levy, the founder of the now defunct Gallup Israel)
carried out 12 January 2003:

Ma'ariv declines to share with the readers how many respondents refused to
reveal how they intended to vote and, in turn, how the "refuse reply" party
seats were allocated among the real parties.

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 1,000 sample error +/-
3 percentage points: [result from 8 January in [brackets]]

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 63- from 60 current Knesset [62]
Likud 32 [30] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 9 [9]
Shas 9 [10] NRP 4 [4] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [5] Herut 1 [1]
Yisrael B'Aliya 3 [3]
[1.5% of vote is needed to pass the minimum threshold = 1.8 seats
the votes that go to parties that fail to pass the threshold cannot be
shared with other parties]

"Center" Total 16 from 13 current Knesset [16]
Shinui 13 [14] Am Echad 3 [2]
Different Israel 0 [0]

Left/Arabs: Total 39 from 47 current Knesset [41]
Labor/Meimad 20 [22] Meretz 8 [8]
Arab parties 11 [11]

"Other" Total 2 from 0 current Knesset [1]
Aleh Yarok 2 [1] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

From everything you have heard or read in the media did Ariel Sharon
convince you that he acted properly in everything relating to the loan he
received from his friend from South Africa?
Yes 26% No 46% Don't know 28%

Was Cheshin correct when he stopped broadcast of Sharon's press conference
claiming that it was election propaganda?
Yes 42% No 33% No reply 25%

Ma'ariv 13 January 2003

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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Original text copyright by the author and MidEastWeb for Coexistence, RA. Posted at MidEastWeb Middle East Web Log at http://www.mideastweb.org/log/archives/00000028.htm where your intelligent and constructive comments are welcome. Distributed by MEW Newslist. Subscribe by e-mail to mew-subscribe@yahoogroups.com. Please forward by email with this notice and link to and cite this article. Other uses by permission.

by Ami Isseroff @ 09:57 PM CST [Link]

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