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Israeli Election Polls - January 3 2003 + Corrected predictions

01/04/2003

The Likud continues to lose popularity because of election scandals, and perhaps because year-end economic data have made people realize that the economy is really in awful shape, and the government has done virtually nothing about it. The Likud forecast has shrunk to as low as 31 knesset seats in the Ha'aretz forecast, down from as high as 40 seats.

Israeli opinion polls show consistently better results for the left than the real results, and especially underestimate the vote for the Ultra-orthodox Shas party, and current polls register about 25% of respondents who say "don't know" or refuse to reply.

A probable forecast of the final results, based on current polls and past projections:

Right Bloc 65 : Likud - 31| NRP 4| Nat Union 8 | Shas 13| UTJ 5| Yisrael B'Aliya 4|
Center 15 : Shinui -12| Am Ehad - 3
Left - 40 : Labor - 22| Meretz 8 | Arab Parties - 10 |

The above assumes that Arab party candidates Ahmed Tibi and Azmi Bishara will be allowed to run following their appeal to the Israel High Court.

Poll Results 3 January 2003
Aaron Lerner Date: 3 January 2003

+++Dahaf - Yediot Ahronot

The following are the results of Dahaf polls carried out the week of
January 3, 2003. The poll took place after the Labor Party and Likud
announced their lists.

Yediot Ahronot continues to decline to share with the readers what day or
days the survey was actually carried out. The paper also declines to share
with the readers how many respondents refused to reveal how they intended to
vote and, in turn, how the "refuse reply" party seats were allocated among
the real parties.

It should be noted that while the results claim to be +/- 4.5 percentage
points that that is the statistical error associated with the raw poll
results rather than the "processed" results in the Knesset seat table

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 548:
(results from week of 27 December in [brackets]

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 58.5 - from 54 current Knesset [61]
Likud 32 [35] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 8 [7]
Shas 9.5 [9] NRP 4 [5] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [5]

"Center" Total 21.5 from 19 [21]
Yisrael B'Aliya 4 [4] Shinui 14 [14] Am Echad 3.5 [3]

Left/Arabs: Total 37.5 from 47 current Knesset [38]
Labor/Meimad 22 [21] Meretz 8 [7]
Arab parties 7.5 [10] [includes Hadash]

"Other" Total 2 from 0 current Knesset [0]
Aleh Yarok 2 [0] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

Was it justified to fire Naomi Blumenthal from her position as deputy
minister of Infrastructure?
Yes 56% No 33% No reply 11%

What do you think drove Sharon to fire Blumenthal?
Clear out corruption 26% Elections 63% Both 8% No reply 3%

Omri Sharon was also questioned in the past and exercised his right to
remain silent.Should his father commit not to appoint him to a public
position? [IMRA: He is on the Likud list]
Yes 70% no 24% No reply 6%

Who of the following should have been disqualified from running for the
Knesset?
Baruch Marzal Yes 44% No 25% No reply 31%

Ahmad Tibi Yes 71% No 22% No reply 7%

Azmi Bishara Yes 70% No 19% No reply 11%

Does the disqualification of Tibi and Bishara hurt Arab-Jewish relations?
Yes 57% No 41% No reply 2%

Who should decide on the disqualification of lists and candidates?
Politicians 20% Court 76% No reply 4%

Asked to Israeli Arabs: Does the disqualification for Tibi and Bishara
change your decision to participate in the elections?
No 58% Thought to vote now won't 28% Thought not to vote now will 12%
No reply 2%

Yediot Ahronot 3 January 2003

+++ "New Wave"
The following are the results of a Ma'ariv poll by "New Wave" (a new polling
company formed by Yaacov Levy, the founder of the now defunct Gallup Israel)
carried out 1 January 2003:

Ma'ariv declines to share with the readers how many respondents refused to
reveal how they intended to vote and, in turn, how the "refuse reply" party
seats were allocated among the real parties.

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 627, sample error +/-
4.5 percentage points: [result from 25 December in [brackets]]

MA'ARIV MOVED YISRAEL B'ALYA FROM "CENTER" TO "RIGHT/RELIGIOUS"

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 65 - from 60 current Knesset [63]
Likud 34 [35] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 9 [8]
Shas 9 [7] NRP 4 [4] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [5] Herut 0 [0]
Yisrael B'Aliya 4 [4]

"Center" Total 14 from 13 current Knesset [14]
Shinui 12 [12] Am Echad 2 [2]
Different Israel 0 [0]

Left/Arabs: Total 40 from 47 current Knesset [41]
Labor/Meimad 21 [22] Meretz 8 [8]
Arab parties 11 [11] [includes Hadash]

"Other" Total 1 from 0 current Knesset [2]
Aleh Yarok 1 [2] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

Compare Ariel Sharon and Amram Mitzna,:
Sharon 42% Mitzna 31% Believe more
Sharon 48% Mitzna 28% Count on more
Sharon 31% Mitzna 11% More corrupt
Sharon 41% Mitzna 29% More able to improve the situation

Who do you think will win the coming elections, Likud or Labor?
Likud 77% Labor 14% Don't know 9%
Among Labor voters Likud 66% Labor 17%

Without any connection to who wins the elections, do you support or oppose
the establishment of a national unity government of Likud and Labor?
Support 57% Oppose 31% Don't know 12%

Assuming that a national unity government is established, which government
do you support more? Likud, Labor, Religious or Likud, Labor, Shinui?
With Shinui 56% With religious 26% Don't know 18%
Likud voters: Shinui 47% Religious 44%
Labor voters: Shinui 79%Religious 5%

If you had two ballots in the coming elections, which of the candidates
would you vote for - Sharon or Mitzna?
Sharon 51% Mitzna 31% Don't know 18%

If the candidates were:
Sharon 49% Peres 34% Don't know 17%
Sharon 54% Barak 21% Don't know 25%

Do you support prime minister Ariel Sharon's decision to fire deputy
minister Naomi Blumenthal due to her decision to exercise her right to
remain silent in the police investigation?
Yes 53% No 25% Don't know 22%

[IMRA: Attorney Yitzchak Herzog diverted funds from a Canadian charity he
represented to the Barak election campaign. The contribution was illegal.
The diversion of funds was illegal and to top it all off, the move could
have jeopardized the Canadian charity's tax exempt status in Canada. Herzog
also acted as bag man for a variety of other illegal campaign
contributions.]

Should Yitzchak Herzog be removed from the Labor Party Knesset list since he
exercised his right to remain silent in the investigation of Labor Party
associations?
Total: Yes 47% No 24% Don't know 29%
Vote Likud: Yes 56%No 15%
Vote Labor: Yes 38% No 42%

[IMRA: Omri Sharon left a paper trail detailing apparently illegal
contributions to his father's campaign that amazed many for his display of
sheer stupidity. Questionable foreign contributions are nothing new to
Israel, but care is typically taken to keep the candidate away from anything
that can connect him to it (see above about Herzog, bag man for Barak).
Omri even had his father sign a check using questionable fund. This was only
topped by the embarrassingly pathetic way he handled exercising his right to
remain silent. Omri told his interrogators that he did not want to say
anything that could hurt anyone. His interrogators patiently explained to
him that he only had the right to remain silent to protect himself.]

Should Omri Sharon be removed from the Likud Party Knesset list since he
exercised his right to remain silent in the investigation of Likud Party
associations?
Total: Yes 54% No 25% Don't know 21%
Vote Likud: Yes 55% No 29%
Vote Labor: Yes 48% No 31%

Is Israel prepared for the possibility of a chemical or biological attack
from Iraq?
Yes 49% No 35% Don't know 16%

Do you support or oppose disqualifying the following from running in the
Knesset elections:
Baruch Marzal: Support 43% Oppose 25% Don't know 32%
Ahmad Tibi: Support 60% Oppose 30% Don't know 10%
Azmi Bishara: Support 62% Oppose 29% Don't know 9%

Disqualify all the Arab lists:
Total: Support 32% Oppose 63% Don't know 5%
Vote Likud: Support 53% Oppose 43%
Vote Labor: Support 10% Oppose 85%

Does the disqualifying of Tibi and Bishara strengthen or weaken Israeli
democracy?
Strengthen 34% Weaken 48% Don't know 18%

Does the disqualifying of Tibi and Bishara hurt relations between Israeli
Jews and Arabs?
Yes 61% No 31% Don't know 8%

Asked Jews: Are Israeli Arabs loyal to the state?
Total; Yes 30% No 47% Don't know 23%
Vote Right: Yes 16% No 61%
Vote Left: Yes 56% No 22%

Knesset seat by party due to vote by new immigrants [based on special survey
of 550 new immigrants carried out over the past week]
Total seats (based on share of total population of eligible voters): 19
Likud 6 National Union 5 Yisrael B'Aliya 4 Shinui 2 Meretz 1 Labor 1

Percentage of total seats attributable to new immigrant vote by party:
Likud 18% National Union 56% Yisrael B'Aliya 100% Shinui 17% Meretz 13%
Labor 5%

Ma'ariv 3 January 2003

***
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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Original text copyright by the author and MidEastWeb for Coexistence, RA. Posted at MidEastWeb Middle East Web Log at http://www.mideastweb.org/log/archives/00000024.htm where your intelligent and constructive comments are welcome. Distributed by MEW Newslist. Subscribe by e-mail to mew-subscribe@yahoogroups.com. Please forward by email with this notice and link to and cite this article. Other uses by permission.

by Ami Isseroff @ 08:00 PM CST [Link]

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Replies: 2 comments

Don't forget Mafdal...How would that change your predictions???

Posted by angel @ 01/07/2003 09:46 PM CST

Correct - Mafdal (NRP) was completely forgotten. This is now corrected and likewise in the new set of predictions. Likud will get about 31 seats according to these predictions, somewhat more in the new set. If Herut gets 2 seats, the picture will change a bit.

Posted by Ami Isseroff @ 01/23/2003 01:26 PM CST


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