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The Likud continues to lose popularity because of election scandals, and perhaps because year-end economic data have made people realize that the economy is really in awful shape, and the government has done virtually nothing about it. The Likud forecast has shrunk to as low as 31 knesset seats in the Ha'aretz forecast, down from as high as 40 seats.
Israeli opinion polls show consistently better results for the left than the real results, and especially underestimate the vote for the Ultra-orthodox Shas party, and current polls register about 25% of respondents who say "don't know" or refuse to reply.
A probable forecast of the final results, based on current polls and past projections:
Right Bloc 65 : Likud - 31| NRP 4| Nat Union 8 | Shas 13| UTJ 5| Yisrael B'Aliya 4|
The above assumes that Arab party candidates Ahmed Tibi and Azmi Bishara will be allowed to run following their appeal to the Israel High Court.
Poll Results 3 January 2003
+++Dahaf - Yediot Ahronot
The following are the results of Dahaf polls carried out the week of
Yediot Ahronot continues to decline to share with the readers what day or
It should be noted that while the results claim to be +/- 4.5 percentage
Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 548:
Right/Religious Bloc: Total 58.5 - from 54 current Knesset 
"Center" Total 21.5 from 19 
Left/Arabs: Total 37.5 from 47 current Knesset 
"Other" Total 2 from 0 current Knesset 
Was it justified to fire Naomi Blumenthal from her position as deputy
What do you think drove Sharon to fire Blumenthal?
Omri Sharon was also questioned in the past and exercised his right to
Who of the following should have been disqualified from running for the
Ahmad Tibi Yes 71% No 22% No reply 7%
Azmi Bishara Yes 70% No 19% No reply 11%
Does the disqualification of Tibi and Bishara hurt Arab-Jewish relations?
Who should decide on the disqualification of lists and candidates?
Asked to Israeli Arabs: Does the disqualification for Tibi and Bishara
Yediot Ahronot 3 January 2003
+++ "New Wave"
Ma'ariv declines to share with the readers how many respondents refused to
Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 627, sample error +/-
MA'ARIV MOVED YISRAEL B'ALYA FROM "CENTER" TO "RIGHT/RELIGIOUS"
Right/Religious Bloc: Total 65 - from 60 current Knesset 
"Center" Total 14 from 13 current Knesset 
Left/Arabs: Total 40 from 47 current Knesset 
"Other" Total 1 from 0 current Knesset 
Compare Ariel Sharon and Amram Mitzna,:
Who do you think will win the coming elections, Likud or Labor?
Without any connection to who wins the elections, do you support or oppose
Assuming that a national unity government is established, which government
If you had two ballots in the coming elections, which of the candidates
If the candidates were:
Do you support prime minister Ariel Sharon's decision to fire deputy
[IMRA: Attorney Yitzchak Herzog diverted funds from a Canadian charity he
Should Yitzchak Herzog be removed from the Labor Party Knesset list since he
[IMRA: Omri Sharon left a paper trail detailing apparently illegal
Should Omri Sharon be removed from the Likud Party Knesset list since he
Is Israel prepared for the possibility of a chemical or biological attack
Do you support or oppose disqualifying the following from running in the
Disqualify all the Arab lists:
Does the disqualifying of Tibi and Bishara strengthen or weaken Israeli
Does the disqualifying of Tibi and Bishara hurt relations between Israeli
Asked Jews: Are Israeli Arabs loyal to the state?
Knesset seat by party due to vote by new immigrants [based on special survey
Percentage of total seats attributable to new immigrant vote by party:
Ma'ariv 3 January 2003
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Replies: 2 comments
Don't forget Mafdal...How would that change your predictions???
Posted by angel @ 01/07/2003 09:46 PM CST
Correct - Mafdal (NRP) was completely forgotten. This is now corrected and likewise in the new set of predictions. Likud will get about 31 seats according to these predictions, somewhat more in the new set. If Herut gets 2 seats, the picture will change a bit.
Posted by Ami Isseroff @ 01/23/2003 01:26 PM CST
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