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Israel Election Polls December 27


As elections come closer in Israel, polls continue to predict an easy victory for Ariel Sharon and the Likud party over Avraham Mitzna, Labor and the left. Only minor questions remain: the margin of victory, the strength of religious parties such as Shas, the strength of the centrist Shinui party and the size of the debacle for Labor and the left.

The "right bloc" will get about 63 MK's if we include Sharansky's Yisrael B'aliyah party, the left bloc will get about 41, provided none of the Arab candidates or parties are disqualified.

This week's polls also include questions about the anticipated war with Iraq.

Poll Results 27 December 2002
Aaron Lerner Date: 27 December 2002

+++Dahaf - Yediot Ahronot

The following are the results of Dahaf polls carried out the week of
December 27 2002. The poll took place after the Labor Party and Likud
announced their lists.
[IMRA commentary]
Yediot Ahronot continues to decline to share with the readers what day or
days the survey was actually carried out. The paper also declines to share
with the readers how many respondents refused to reveal how they intended to
vote and, in turn, how the "refuse reply" party seats were allocated among
the real parties.

It should be noted that while the results claim to be +/- 4.5 percentage
points that that is the statistical error associated with the raw poll
results rather than the "processed" results in the Knesset seat table

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 505:
(results from week of 20 December in [brackets]

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 61 - from 54 current Knesset [57.5]
Likud 35 [33] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 7 [8]
Shas 9 [8.5] NRP 5 [3.5] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [4.5]

"Center" Total 21 from 19 [20]
Yisrael B'Aliya 4 [4.5] Shinui 14 [12] Am Echad 3 [3.5]

Left/Arabs: Total 38 from 47 current Knesset [41]
Labor/Meimad 21 [22] Meretz 7 [9]
Arab parties 10 [10] [includes Hadash]

"Other" Total 0 from 0 current Knesset [1.5]
Aleh Yarok 0 [1.5] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

To what extent are you certain you are going to vote in the elections?
Certain 61% Certain no 20% Undecided 19%

Which of the following factors could change your decision as to the party
you will vote for?
65% Going into a coalition with parties I reject
62% Policy declarations
46% Revelations of corruption
28% Terror attacks

Is it desirable for Israel that the USA attack Iraq?
Yes 61% No 33% No reply 6%

Do you fear being physically hurt in the case of an Iraqi attack on Israel?
Yes 41% No 57% No reply 2%

Do you fear being physically hurt in a terror attack?
Yes 70% No 26% No reply 4%

What are the chances that Iraq will attack Israel with nonconventional
High 14% Middle 37% Low 44% No reply 5%

What are the chances that Iraq will attack Israel with conventional weapons?
High 34% Middle 35% Low 27% No reply 4%

Have you renewed your gas mask?
Yes 58% Not yet but plan to 25% No 17%

Did you reserve space in a hotel bed and breakfast in an area far from the
Yes 0% Not yet, but plan to 0% No 93% Live away from center of country 7%

Have you ordered airline tickets to leave the country?
Yes 1% Not yet but plan to 3% No 96%

Yediot Ahronot 27 December 2002.

+++ "New Wave"
The following are the results of a Ma'ariv poll by "New Wave" (a new polling
company formed by Yaacov Levy, the founder of the now defunct Gallup Israel)
carried out 25 December 2002:

Ma'ariv declines to share with the readers how many respondents refused to
reveal how they intended to vote and, in turn, how the "refuse reply" party
seats were allocated among the real parties.

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 627, sample error +/-
4.5 percentage points: [result from 18 December in [brackets]]


Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 63 - from 60 current Knesset [63]
Likud 35 [35] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 8 [7]
Shas 7 [7] NRP 4 [4] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [5] Herut 0 [0]
Yisrael B'Aliya 4 [5]

"Center" Total 14 from 13 current Knesset [14]
Shinui 12 [12] Am Echad 2 [2]
Different Israel 0 [0]

Left/Arabs: Total 41 from 47 current Knesset [42]
Labor/Meimad 22 [23] Meretz 8 [8]
Arab parties 11 [11] [includes Hadash]

"Other" Total 2 from 0 current Knesset [1]
Aleh Yarok 2 [1] (Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its
platform to legalize marijuana)

Percent who said they were certain they would vote for the party they
indicated and percent who are certain they are voting
Certain about party 57% Certain voting 60% Likud
Certain about party 39% Certain voting 57% Labor
Certain about party 62% Certain voting 71% Shas
Certain about party 42% Certain voting 58% Meretz
Certain about party 42% Certain voting 52% Shinui
Certain about party 61% Certain voting 70% National Union

Of the following personalities in the large parties, who projects

Yes 63% No 31% Don't know 06% Sharon
Yes 55% No 30% Don't know 15% Mofaz
Yes 39% No 48% Don't know 13% Livnat
Yes 38% No 46% Don't know 16% Olmert
Yes 34% No 60% Don't know 06% Netanyahu
Yes 28% No 53% Don't know 19% Shalom
Yes 20% No 59% Don't know 21% Hanegbi
Yes 52% No 28% Don't know 20% Vilnai
Yes 52% No 43% Don't know 05% Peres
Yes 44% No 44% Don't know 12% Mitzna
Yes 42% No 42% Don't know 16% Berg
Yes 40% No 41% Don't know 19% Shochat
Yes 31% No 59% Don't know 10% Ben Eliezer
Yes 28% No 55% Don't know 17% Itzik
Yes 26% No 62% Don't know 12% Ramon

Is it proper that the son of Ariel Sharon, Omri Sharon, was elected to the Likud list?
Yes 36% No 51% Don' know 13%
Likud voters: Yes 52% No 39%

Can prime minister Ariel Sharon deal with corruption in the Likud?
Yes 47% No 44%Don't know 90%
Likud voters: Yes 79% No 16%

If it is demonstrated that the latest revelations of corruption are correct,
should the elections be held as planned or postponed so that the parties can
choose their candidates again?
Hold elections as scheduled 41% Postpone 52% Don' know 7%

If war breaks out between Israel and the US will Iraq attack Israel?
Yes 53% No 32% Don't know 15%

What do you fear more today - Iraqi or Palestinian attack?
Iraqi 24% Palestinian 55% Don' know 21%

If Iraq attacks will it be with conventional weapons as during the Gulf War
or nonconventional weapons -chemical or biological?
Conventional 41% Nonconventional 21% Both 7% Don't know 31%

If Iraq attacks Israel what do you plan to do?
Stay home 90% Relocate in Israel 5% Go overseas 3% Don't know 2%

There are those who claim that prime minister Ariel Sharon exaggerated in
his description of the Iraqi danger in order to divert pubic attention from
investigations of Likud corruption. DO you agree?
Yes 38% No 49% Don't know 13%

Does the media exaggerate the Iraqi danger?
Exaggerate 49% Understate 6% As is 37% Don't know 8%

[IMRA comment omitted]

Of the there following possibilities, which is preferable:
43% Renew negotiations to reach an agreement with the Palestinians
33% Unilateral withdrawal
11% Current situation
13% Don't know

Do you support or oppose unilateral separation under which all the
settlements in the Gaza Strip and isolated settlements in Judea and Samaria
are evacuated so that the Palestinians hold 65% of the West Bank an Israel
holds 35% including the Jordan Valley and large settlement blocs?
Support 43% Oppose 46% Don't know 11%

Ma'ariv 27 December 2002

+++ Dialogue Ha'aretz

The following are more results of a Dialogue poll of a representative sample
of 526 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out on 24 December
2002 for Ha'aretz and published in Ha'aretz on 27 December. Survey error
+/- 4.3 percentage points.

Senior members of the security apparatus maintain that Israel is better
prepared than ever before for an Iraqi attack. To what extent do you
believe them?
Don't 24.8% Considerably do 34.2% Do 41%

If there is a war, how will you act in the event of a warning and you are
Enter reinforced room 18.1% Enter sealed room 29% Enter shelter 22.4%
None of the above 24%
Do what the TV says 2.3% Do what radio says 0.6% Don't know 3.6%

If there is a war in the Gulf, during the time of the war you plan to:
Stay put 89% Go elsewhere in country 5%
Go overseas 1.9% Don't know 4.1%

Among reside in Gush Dan (Tel Aviv south through Rishon Letzion, east
through Petach Tikva north through Ramat Hasharon)
Stay put 85.1% Go elsewhere in country 7.1%
Go overseas 2.6% Don't know 5.2%

The Ministry of Health is considering the possibility of offering Israeli
citizens the opportunity to be inoculated against smallpox. At times this
inoculation may have side effects and in rare instances (one in a million)
death. Would you be interested in being inoculated?
Certain yes 26.4% Think yes 15.4%
Maybe yes/Maybe no 24.7%
Think no 10.3% Certain no 23.2%

Ha'aretz 27 January 2002

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il

* Balanced Middle East News ***
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