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As elections come closer in Israel, polls continue to predict an easy victory for Ariel Sharon and the Likud party over Avraham Mitzna, Labor and the left. Only minor questions remain: the margin of victory, the strength of religious parties such as Shas, the strength of the centrist Shinui party and the size of the debacle for Labor and the left.
The "right bloc" will get about 63 MK's if we include Sharansky's Yisrael B'aliyah party, the left bloc will get about 41, provided none of the Arab candidates or parties are disqualified.
This week's polls also include questions about the anticipated war with Iraq.
Poll Results 27 December 2002
+++Dahaf - Yediot Ahronot
The following are the results of Dahaf polls carried out the week of
It should be noted that while the results claim to be +/- 4.5 percentage
Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 505:
Right/Religious Bloc: Total 61 - from 54 current Knesset [57.5]
"Center" Total 21 from 19 
Left/Arabs: Total 38 from 47 current Knesset 
"Other" Total 0 from 0 current Knesset [1.5]
To what extent are you certain you are going to vote in the elections?
Which of the following factors could change your decision as to the party
Is it desirable for Israel that the USA attack Iraq?
Do you fear being physically hurt in the case of an Iraqi attack on Israel?
Do you fear being physically hurt in a terror attack?
What are the chances that Iraq will attack Israel with nonconventional
What are the chances that Iraq will attack Israel with conventional weapons?
Have you renewed your gas mask?
Did you reserve space in a hotel bed and breakfast in an area far from the
Have you ordered airline tickets to leave the country?
Yediot Ahronot 27 December 2002.
+++ "New Wave"
Ma'ariv declines to share with the readers how many respondents refused to
Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 627, sample error +/-
[IMRA- MA'ARIV MOVED YISRAEL B'ALYA FROM "CENTER" TO "RIGHT/RELIGIOUS"]
Right/Religious Bloc: Total 63 - from 60 current Knesset 
"Center" Total 14 from 13 current Knesset 
Left/Arabs: Total 41 from 47 current Knesset 
"Other" Total 2 from 0 current Knesset 
Percent who said they were certain they would vote for the party they
Of the following personalities in the large parties, who projects
Is it proper that the son of Ariel Sharon, Omri Sharon, was elected to the Likud list?
Can prime minister Ariel Sharon deal with corruption in the Likud?
If it is demonstrated that the latest revelations of corruption are correct,
If war breaks out between Israel and the US will Iraq attack Israel?
What do you fear more today - Iraqi or Palestinian attack?
If Iraq attacks will it be with conventional weapons as during the Gulf War
If Iraq attacks Israel what do you plan to do?
There are those who claim that prime minister Ariel Sharon exaggerated in
Does the media exaggerate the Iraqi danger?
[IMRA comment omitted]
Of the there following possibilities, which is preferable:
Do you support or oppose unilateral separation under which all the
Ma'ariv 27 December 2002
+++ Dialogue Ha'aretz
The following are more results of a Dialogue poll of a representative sample
Senior members of the security apparatus maintain that Israel is better
If there is a war, how will you act in the event of a warning and you are
If there is a war in the Gulf, during the time of the war you plan to:
Among reside in Gush Dan (Tel Aviv south through Rishon Letzion, east
The Ministry of Health is considering the possibility of offering Israeli
Ha'aretz 27 January 2002
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
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