Poll Results 20 December 2002
Aaron Lerner Date: 20 December 2002

The following are the results of Dahaf polls carried out the week of
December 20
2002. The poll took place after the Labor Party and Likud announced their
lists.

Yediot Ahronot declines to share with the readers what day or days the
survey was actually carried out. The paper also delcines to share with the
readers how many respondents refused to reveal how they intended to vote
and, in turn, how the "refuse reply" party seats were allocated among the
real parties. For some reason Yediot Ahronot opted to compare the results
this week to the results 2 weeks ago rather than a week ago. IMRA compares
the results to last week.

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 604:
(results from 12 December in [brackets]

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 57.5 - from 54 current Knesset [59]
Likud 33 [35] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 8 [8]
Shas 8.5 [8] NRP 3.5 [3.5] Yahadut Hatorah 4.5 [4.5]

"Center" Total 20 from 19 [18]
Yisrael B'Aliya 4.5 [5] Shinui 12 [9.5] Am Echad 3.5 [3.5]

Left/Arabs: Total 41 from 47 current Knesset [41.5]
Labor/Meimad 22 [22] Meretz 9 [9.5]
Arab parties 10 [10] [includes Hadash]

"Drugs/Prostitution" Total 1.5 from 0 current Knesset [1.5]
Aleh Yarok 1.5 [1] (less than minimum threshold. This time Aleh Yarok has
added legalization of prostitution to its platform to legalize marijuana)

Asked Jewish respondents: What grade do you give the following parties for
the integrity of the candidates on the list - 10 = most have integrity and 1
most are corrupt:

Shinui 5.6 National Union 5.4 NRP 5.4 Meretz 5.4 Labor 5.2 Likud 5.0
One Israel 5.0 Yisrael B'Aliya 4.9 Agudat Yisrael 4.4 Shas 3.3

What are the chances that criminal elements will influence decisions in the
coming Knesset?
High 34% Considerably high 15% Middle 8%
Considerably low 10% Low 19% No reply 14%

Yediot Ahronot 20 December 2002.

+++ "New Wave"
The following are the results of a Ma'ariv poll by "New Wave" (a new polling
company formed by Yaacov Levy, the founder of the now defunct Gallup Israel)
carried out 18 December 13 2002:

Ma'ariv declines to share with the readers how many respondents refused to
reveal how they intended to vote and, in turn, how the "refuse reply" party
seats were allocated among the real parties.

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 627, sample error +/-
4.5 percentage points: [result from week
of 13 December in [brackets]]

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 58 - from 54 current Knesset [62]
Likud 35 [39] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 7 [7]
Shas 7 [6] NRP 4 [4] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [5] Herut 0 [1]

"Center" Total 19 from 19 current Knesset [15]
Yisrael B'Aliya 5 [3] Shinui 12 [9] Am Echad 2 [2]
Different Israel 0 [1]

Left/Arabs: Total 42 from 47 current Knesset [42]
Labor/Meimad 23 [24] Meretz 8 [7]
Arab parties 11 [11] [includes Hadash]

"Drugs/Prostitution" Total 1 from 0 current Knesset [1]
Aleh Yarok 1 [1]

Compare the two main candidates for prime minister [IMRA: voters vote this
election for parties - no direct election of prime minister]
Sharon 42% Mitzna 20% Smarter
Sharon 83% Mitzna 06% More experienced
Sharon 44% Mitzna 25% More responsible
Sharon 31% Mitzna 32% More honest
Sharon 42% Mitzna 30% More able to improve the situation

Do you have trust in the political system in Israel?
Yes 26% No 69% Don't know 5%

Compared to other democratic states in the world, would you say that Israeli
politicians are more or less corrupt?
More 29% Less 13% Same 45% Don't know 13%

How many of the politicians in Israel are corrupt?
All 6% Most 39% Minority 46% None 1% Don't know 8%

Level of corruption - 1= none, 10 = completely corrupt
Shas 7.7 Likud 6.7 Labor 5.7
National Union 5.5 Meretz 4.8 Shinui 4.4

Is it possible that there will be representatives of the underworld in the
upcoming Knesset?
Yes 53% No 40% Don't know 7%

What do you think will be the most important issue in the election campaign?

Security/Diplomatic situation 42% Socio-Economic situation 32%
Corruption revealed 5% Don't know 21%

Did the recent revelations of corruption effect your voting decision for the
upcoming election?
Yes 28% No 68% Don't know 4%

If it is demonstrated that the recent revelations of corruption are correct
should the elections be held as planned or postponed so that new party lists
can be elected?
As scheduled 41% Postpone 52% Don't know 7%

Do you support or oppose the proposed budget that was discussed in the
Knesset this week>?
Support 22% Oppose 40% Don't know 38%

Does the budget treat different parts of society equally?
Yes 8% No 73% Don't know 19%

Of the two major parties, which has a better economic policy? Labor or
Likud?
Labor 38% Likud 30% Don't know 32%

Survey of 400 Israeli Arabs: Do you like or dislike:

Like 75% Dislike 17% Azmi Bishara
Like 70% Dislike 22% Ahmed Tibi
Like 67% Dislike 22% Muhamed Barakei
Like 58% Dislike 30% Hashem Mahameed
Like 49% Dislike 35% Amram Mitzna
Like 46% Dislike 39% Yosse Beilin
Like 41% Dislike 37% Yasser Arafat
Like 24% Dislike 45% Sadam Hussein
Like 20% Dislike 44% Osama Bin Laden
Like 07% Dislike 84% Ariel Sharon

Ma'ariv 20 December 2002

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)

Website: http://www.imra.org.il

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