Shinui leader Tomi Lapid clarified today on Israel radio that he would be willing to be in a unity government headed by either Labor or Likud, but would probably not join a government with Shas, UTJ or Arab parties. Labor leader Amram Mitzna said he would be pleased to form a unity government with himself as head. The ultraorthodox Shas party has lost ground because of internal dissension over suppression of ousted leader Arieh Der'i, jailed on corruption charges and his supporters, and because of the change in the election law. However, a Shas spokesman noted that their party always outdid the predictions of polls. This is usually due to exceptionally high participation by their voters. In some districts, as many as 102% of registered voters have voted for Shas in past elections.

The high percentage of voters who refuse to anwer, noted by IMRA's Aaron Lerner, should also be interpreted in the light of the fact that ultra-orthodox voters often refuse to disclose their inclinations to surveys.

Tomi Lapid remarked on Israel Radio's B network today (December 20) that the larger parties would both begin attacking Shinui innacurately as a one-issue party as it became apparent that those parties were losing voters to Shinui. Shinui's major platform innovations support enactment of a constitution and repeal of laws favoring ultra-orthodox parties.

07:11 19/12/2002Last update - 11:47 19/12/2002

http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=242899

The storm surrounding the corruption scandal during the Likud primaries earlier this month is still blowing hard, and no-one has managed to come up with "the ultimate spin" to get the affair off the front pages.

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's advisors are no longer speaking in terms of doubling their strength in the Knesset.

Instead, they stand helpless in the face of the tempest of headlines. Theirs is a Sisyphian task, a losing battle: even the lowliest of central committee members can present himself to the offices of the National Fraud Squad in Bat Yam and earn himself a great deal more than 15 minutes of fame, at the expense of the Sharon and the Likud.

Bleak prospect

The advisors, of course, are not allowed to brief those giving their account of the affair to police, otherwise the face accusations of hindering the police investigation. They can't, much to their chagrin, declare war on a neighboring country or find a nuclear reactor to bomb. There is nothing positive on the horizon that could help distract the public's attention. Only President Bush and his war on Iraq can save the day, and so far, he's keeping quiet.

The most worrying statistic for Likud must be that almost 15 percent of Likud voters say that, as a result of the primaries scandal and the subsequent police investigation, they are less likely to vote Likud on January 28.

The growing feeling of unease in the hearts of Sharon's advisors is based on objective figures: when voters who backed Labor in the 1999 election were asked, just one week ago, whether they could envisage switching to Likud, 16 percent of them said they could.

In the most recent poll, less than half of that number gave the same answer.

Inching to the left

Another bleak figure for the Likud to contemplate: when those identifying themselves as Likud voters were asked how the police investigation into alleged corruption at the party's primaries would affect their vote, 15 percent said that they were now less likely to back Sharon.

As long as the investigations, the revelations, the headlines and the arrests go on, more and more of the wavering voters will make the switch to the left, and the blocs will inch toward parity.

Labor and Shinui have also picked up on this potential phenomenon, but while Shinui rushed out with a campaign as soon as the storm erupted, Labor bided its time, letting the media do the job for it. Labor waited until yesterday before launching poster campaign on thousands of bus shelters: "Mitzna leading with straight politics," and "Only Mitzna can! Not the Likud."

The shift in the electorate over the past week highlights a complex triangle with the following sides: Labor-Shinui, Likud-Shinui and Likud-Shinui. As a result of the bribery scandal, Likud has lost six seats. The voters that went over to Shinui can be defined as moderate-right, who looked for a home in the Likud and, finding dirt, are moving over to Shinui, which has a squeaky-clean image. The move is relatively painless and does not entail any great heart-wrenching. After all, the only thing Shinui is committed to is hating the ultra-Orthodox.

The second group is much more interesting: those who identify with the Likud because it is the party in power, but as soon as they realized that this is no way to run a ruling party, turned to Labor, the only other party seemingly capable of taking over at the helm of the country. The first group is looking for integrity; the second, power. Those who defected to Shinui view it as a rightist party.

Playing the game

At the same time, fully 40 percent of Shinui voters define themselves as leftists, and therein is Labor's pool of potential supporters. Shinui, for its part, refuses to play the game and remains outside the leftist bloc. "We won't join any government with Labor and the Arabs, and we won't join any government with Likud and the ultra-Orthodox," declares Lapid. "We will force a national unity government with Labor, Likud and Shinui sharing power."

The survey also shows that most voters opposed renewing peace talks with the Palestinians, as long as there is no cessation of terror attacks. But, interestingly, 19 percent of Likud voters would support such talks. Labor chairman Amram Mitzna could see in that a sign of support from Likudniks for his policy of negotiating with Palestinian Authority
chairman Yasser Arafat.

The survey also reveals that Meretz has stopped losing voted to Labor, and that the Yossi Beilin's defection has lead to a one-seat increase. Some Meretz insiders have expressed the hope that Beilin will earn them a 10th seat in the Knesset, and, being 11th on the list, miss out.

***

Dialogue/Ha'aretz Poll Result - 23 seats for "refuse reply" party

Aaron Lerner Date: 19 December 2002

To Ha'aretz's credit, the table published in the Hebrew edition indicates
that 19% of those polled refused to say who they were going to vote for = 23
seats. The "refuse reply" party, the second largest party in Israel, does
not, however, appear in the results. Instead we are presented with the same
neat results by Knesset seat that allocate the "refuse party" seats to the
real parties without indicating how the allocation was done - and if the
method for allocating these seats is consistent from week-to-week.

The following are the results of a Dialogue poll of a representative sample
of 552 adult Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) carried out on 17 December
2002 for Ha'aretz and published in Ha'aretz on 19 December. Survey error
+/- 4.2 percentage points. Results for the previous poll carried out 9-10
December appear in [brackets].

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 62 - from 54 current Knesset [66]
Likud 35 [41] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 8 [7]
Shas 10 [9] NRP 4 [4]Yahadut Hatorah 5 [5]

"Center" Total 18 from 19 current Knesset [17]
Yisrael B'Aliya 3 [3] Shinui 13 [12] Am Echad 2 [2]

[Shinui leader MK Lapid announced yesterday that he would not join in a bloc
with the Left that relied on non-Zionist parties (namely Arab)]

Left/Arabs: Total 40 from 47 current Knesset [37]
Labor/Meimad 23 [20] Meretz 8 [7]
Arab parties 9 [10] [includes Hadash]

Will you vote?
Certain yes 64.8% Think yes 11.2% Maybe 10.2%
Think no 4.8% Certain no 7.7% Don't know 1.1%

There are three methods according to which parties select their candidates
for the Knesset:
party members vote, central committee members vote or a committee sets the
slate. Which do you prefer?

Party members 38.7% Central committee 17.6% Committee 31.8%
All same 0.6% None 3.5% Don't know 7.8%

Which party has the most attractive top five candidates: Labor or Likud?
Likud 47% Labor 30.8% Both same 6.5% Neither 10.3%
No reply 5.4%

After the elections would you support negotiations with the Palestinians as
long as the terror attacks continue?
Certainly oppose 41.3% Oppose 14.5%
Maybe yes maybe no 10.4%
Support 14.9% Certainly support 16.7%
Don't know 1.4% Refuse reply 0.8%

Asked to Likud voters:

Does the fact that the police are carrying out a criminal investigation of
the Likud primaries have an impact on the chances you will vote for the
Likud?
Reduce chances 14.7% No impact 73.3%
Increase 3.1% No reply 8.9%

If it turns out that a candidate for the Knesset was involved in bribery
what should be done?
Expel candidate 74.3% Keep list as is 3.8%
New primaries [technically impossible] 13.4% Refuse reply 8.5%

[Ha'aretz 19 December 2002]

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
pager 03-6106666 subscriber 4811
Website: http://www.imra.org.il