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Israel Election Polls December 12

12/15/2002

Israel Election Polls show the right bloc getting approximately 60 seats, while the left bloc will get approximately 40 seats out of the 120 seats in the Israeli Knesset. Left bloc numbers include the Arab parties, which traditionally are not included in coalitions.

Poll Results 13 December 2002
Aaron Lerner

The following are the results of Dahaf polls carried out on December 12 2002. The poll took place after the Labor Party and Likud announced their lists.

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 704:
(results from 10 December in [brackets]

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 59 - from 54 current Knesset [59.5]
Likud 35 [33] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 8 [8]
Shas 8 [9] NRP 3.5 [4.5] Yahadut Hatorah 4.5 [5]

"Center" Total 18 from 19 [18.5]
Yisrael B'Aliya 5 [3] Shinui 9.5 [12] Am Echad 3.5 [3.5]

Left/Arabs: Total 41.5 from 47 current Knesset [41]
Labor/Meimad 22 [21] Meretz 9.5 [9]
Arab parties 10 [11] [includes Hadash]

"Drugs/Prostitution" Total 1.5 from 0 current Knesset Aleh Yarok 1.5 [1] (less than minimum threshold. This time Aleh Yarok has added legalization of prostitution to its platform to legalize marijuana)

[IMRA: There is no indication how the results of the polling were converted into Knesset seats, how the "undecided" were distributed between parties and how partial sets were allocated. It should be noted that a error of +/- 3.8
percentage points is equal to an error of +/- 4.5 seats.]

Did Yossi Beilin and Yael Dayan's departure strengthen your support for the Labor Party?[asked Labor supporters]
Yes 25% No 69% No reply 6%

Did Yossi Beilin and Yael Dayan's departure strengthen your support for the Labor Party?[asked Meretz supporters]
Yes 41% No 54% No reply 5%

Yediot Ahronot 13 December 2002.

+++ "New Wave"
The following are the results of a Ma'ariv poll by "New Wave" (a new polling company formed by Yaacov Levy, the founder of the now defunct Gallup Israel) carried out the week of December 13 2002:

Total population (including Israeli Arabs) sample of 683: [result from week of 6 December in [brackets]]

Knesset seats:

Right/Religious Bloc: Total 62 - from 54 current Knesset [62]
Likud 39 [40] National Union/Ysrael Beiteinu 7 [7]
Shas 6 [7] NRP 4 [4] Yahadut Hatorah 5 [4] Herut 1 [0]

"Center" Total 15 from 19 current Knesset [16]
Yisrael B'Aliya 3 [4] Shinui 9 [9] Am Echad 2 [2]
Different Israel 1 [1]

Left/Arabs: Total 42 from 47 current Knesset [42]
Labor/Meimad 24 [25] Meretz 7 [6]
Arab parties 11 [11] [includes Hadash]

"Drugs/Prostitution" Total 1 from 0 current Knesset [0]
Aleh Yarok 1 [0]
[IMRA: There is no indication how the results of the polling were converted into Knesset seats, how the "undecided" were distributed between parties and how partial sets were allocated. It should be noted that a error of +/- 4.5 percentage points is equal to an error of +/- 5.4 seats.]

Do you like or dislike:
Like 60% Dislike 35% Don't know 5% Sharon
Like 56% Dislike 35% Don't know 9% Likud
Like 42% Dislike 46% Don't know 12% Mitzna
Like 42% Dislike 49% Don't know 9% Labor Party
Like 31% Dislike 61% Don't know 8% Sarid
Like 30% Dislike 61% Don't know 9% Meretz
Like 32% Dislike 61% Don't know 7% Avigdor Lieberman
Like 34% Dislike 54% Don't know 12% National Union

As you know, this week Labor and Likud had primaries. Without any connection to your political views, which list has the more successful MKs?
Likud 39% Labor 27%

Is the Likud list more to the right, left or same in its views as party leader Ariel Sharon?
Right 39% Left 5% Same 36% Don't know 20%
Vote Likud: Right 25% Left 6% Same 49%

Is the Labor list more to the right, left or same in its views as party leader Amram Mitzna?
Right 28% Left 17% Same 27% Don't know 28%

Assume the Likud wins the elections and Ariel Sharon is prime minister, who would you prefer he form he government with?
Labor/Shinui 55% National Union/Shas 27%
Vote Likud: Labor/Shinui 46% National Union/Shas 35%
Vote Right: Labor/Shinui 34% National Union/Shas 49%
Vote Labor Labor/Shinui 82% National Union/Shas 7%

In general what is more important for you when you chose a party?
Ideology 48% Personalities 26% Both 23% Don't know 3%

After the elections will the security situation improve, worsen or remain the same?
Improve 26% Worsen 13% Same 43% Don't know 18%

After the elections will the economic situation improve, worsen or remain
the same?
Improve 25% Worsen 24% Same 36% Don't know 15%

Ma'ariv 13 December 2002

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
Website: http://www.imra.org.il



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by Editor @ 06:26 PM CST [Link]

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Replies: 1 Comment

If Sharon wins again and continues his present policies, it will hurt Israel internationally. I understand Israelis are worried about defense, however, when the international media has headlines day after day 'Israel kills unarmed Palestinians', 'Israel troops roll into...', 'Israel invades Arafat's headquarters..', it makes even Israel's supporters question Israel's govt. Israel is becoming more isolated and the oil guys in the US govt will only be its friends as long as it is beneficial, then Israel will be cut off. Israel needs to make peace while it still has US support - don't trust the oil interests in the US govt to be on Israel's side much longer. Sorry these guys care only about their $$$, not Israel, not their own citizens.

Posted by Karen @ 12/16/2002 02:42 AM CST


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