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Analysis of the Current Situation (22.10.00)Yitshak Frankenthal If Barak decides to invite Sharon to join the government, in other words to freeze the peace process, I can foresee the following - perhaps tragic - scenario as almost a certainty. In the following scenario I will try to present the problems, the solution and the means to reach a solution: THE SCENARIO 1. Barak concludes that he does not have the support of the Knesset and asks Sharon to join - either a coalition or an emergency government. 2. The Palestinians' deep despair, unfortunately for us, leads to terrorist acts inside Israel and the settlements. 3. The Israelis form a new Jewish underground that addresses these acts by retribution or by initiated acts against the Palestinians. 4. Israel prepares for general elections whilst it is clear that Netanyahu will win a landslide majority with a promise to "eliminate" the difficulties. 5. Elections take place, Netanyahu wins a landslide majority and Israel enters into a spiral of events that may lead to severing diplomatic ties with Egypt and Jordan, possibly even a total war in the region. 6. Few years later, and scores if not hundreds, of dead Israelis, peace talks with the Palestinians are resumed. THE SOLUTION
Barak should reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians - in its initial stage, the entire negotiations should be conducted in secret. The peace agreement should include a clause that states the conclusion of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the end to all further Palestinian demands from Israel. Following the signature of the agreement, endorsed by Egypt, Jordan and the U.S.A., Barak will declare that a peace agreement has been reached with the Palestinians and he will present it to the people. On the basis of this peace agreement, Barak will call for general elections. I propose that Barak will also reach an agreement with Syria and the elections will include reaffirmation of the agreement with Syria.
HOW TO REACH THE SOLUTION 1. Clause 1 of the scenario seems inevitable. 2. Following the formation of the new government, Barak must enter into serious and thorough negotiations with the Palestinians and Syrians, with the following goals: A Palestinian state within the 1967 borders minus 7%, where over 80% of the settlers live, will be annexed to Israel. In lieu of these 7% the Palestinians will receive alternative land near Gaza. The Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem, including those within the Old City, will come under Palestinian sovereignty. This will include the Islamic holy places (including the Temple Mount). The Jewish sectors will come under Israeli sovereignty including the Jewish Quarter, the Western Wall and other Jewish sites (not including the Temple Mount). Within 8 years Israel will absorb 100,000 refugees, and an internationally financed fund will be set up to compensate the Palestinian refugees. The entire Golan Heights will be returned to Syria including the east bank of the Sea of Galilee which will come under Syrian sovereignty but in the vicinity of the north eastern bank an Israeli-Syrian tourist village (on Syrian sovereign land) will be set up. The Sea of Galilee will come under Israeli sovereignty and the Syrians will have access for leisure purposes but not to pump out water. From talks with senior Palestinian and Syrian representatives, a peace agreement based on these points is possible. 3. At all stages of the negotiations with the Palestinians, they will do their utmost to prevent terrorist acts and the ongoing Intifada against Israel. It is important to reach the elections in a tranquil security situation. Simultaneously, the Palestinians will commence printing new textbooks and prepare to take steps to propagate peace to the Palestinian people. 4. Barak will call for general elections on the basis of signed agreements that must be affirmed by the Knesset after the elections. This is the only chance to pull out of the sorry situation in which we find ourselves. In my opinion, Barak will adopt this plan. Any other route will lead both him and the country into complete chaos. IMPLEMENTATION MEANS 1. An agreement with Arafat's officials within the next few months. 2. An agreement with Syrian officials. 3. Preparation of the Israeli people to this agreement through the local press and the Russian TV channels (directed at the Russian public in Israel). 4. An Israeli Jewish-Arab Social Treaty designed to find the widest common denominator between Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs. 5. Israeli treaty designed to separate politics from religion, including solutions concerning the enlistment of Yeshiveh boys and the attitude of the state to the religious administration in Israel. Where do we, the Families’ Forum, get into this and how? OUR CREDIBILITY 1. We must and want to take action to avoid further loss of children. Unfortunately, some of us have even lost 2 children in the Arab-Israeli conflict, and we feel it is our responsibility to prevent further bloodshed. 2. None of us has any interest to enter into the political arena and all our actions stem from the wish for the good of Israel without any personal or political aspirations. THE STAGES 1. Drafting an Israeli Jewish-Arab Treaty (internal). 2. A peace declaration by means of a Treaty (external) of Peace between Israel and the Palestinians to be adopted at the ultimate stage by Barak,. 3. Launching a campaign that will "market" the internal and external treaties to both the Israeli and Palestinian people. TIMETABLE 1. Drafting of the treaties - within a period of two months. 2. Negotiations with the Syrians - within the timeframe of these two months; including the signature of the Israeli-Syrian treaty. 3. Building a campaign designed to market the treaties - within two months.
FINANCING Within the next two months: Two secretaries, financing of trips to Europe for intensive negotiations will be required during the next two month. Costs: about $30,000 Two months later and until the general elections: Media campaign at a cost of $70,000 per week. Note: Approximately 10 weeks to the elections Please let us hear your views and the ways and means by which you can assist us implement this plan. IMPORTANT NOTE: The time has come to put the Israeli public's sincerity to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians and Syrians to the test. We believe that the majority wants and is ready to pay the price in order to reach peace, on condition that the people are convinced that this will mean a true peace. If we do not face the next elections with as a genuine alternative to Netanyahu, he will win the elections by a landslide and a terrible bloodbath with ensue. The only alternative to Netanyahu will not be Ehud Barak's speeches but his actions. If Ehud will bring a signed agreements to the people of Israel and the elections will present two platforms, the peace agreement vs Netanyahu, only then will there be a chance for Barak to win, and this will be followed by peace with the Palestinian and Syrians. The plan presented is not megalomanic, it is not an impossible plan but the only plan that will lead to peace as opposed to the grave situation with which we are faced at the moment. The name of the game: Peace or War Barak or Netanyahu Yours, Yitzhak Frankenthal - Chairman FAMILIES FORUM
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