As elections loom in Israel, the right can point with satisfaction to poll results that give them an almost certain victory, with 59 to 62 seats versus 41 to 42 seats for the left bloc. Amram Mitzna will probably save the Labor party from the debacle forecast by earlier polls, as predictions have risen from 19 seats last month to 22 to 24 seats, just slightly less than the current representation.

The Israel Labor party might even exceed its current representation. The departure of Yossi Beilin gives Labor a more centrist image. The success of "hard line" people allied to Benjamin Ben Eliezer, a blow for the supporters of peace, will also help to make Labor immune to the "leftist" label, which has become a dirty word in mainstream Israeli politics.  Israeli election laws have changed, so that the prime minister is no longer elected separately. As more and more people understand the significance of this change, voters who may be justifiably fed up with Labor's nonexistent social policies and the kow-towing of both major parties to the religious lobby, may nonetheless vote for Labor as the least of two bad alternatives. Mitzna has enough appeal and daring to stir up enthusiasm and get out the vote, and he does offer a real alternative to the "war forever" policy being carried out by Ariel Sharon.

The Sharon government, reckons rightly that the publication of the quartet roadmap will remind the Israeli public of the inevitable "morning after" of the Iraq war. They have pressured the United States to postpone publication until after the Israeli elections, while the Palestinians and Europeans are pushing for early publication. In either case, the day of reckoning is coming. Now as after the first war with Iraq, Israel will be headed by an intransigent right-wing government, whose main goal will be to stall for time while expanding settlements. This policy will force a confrontation with the United States. Nobody in Israel should have any illusions about the outcome of a conflict between the United States and the Israeli government. We have mortgaged a good deal of our independence to the United States in return for support in the international arena, special trade agreements and $3 billion in annual foreign aid. Now, we are asking for another huge amount, some $14 billions in US-guaranteed loans. The largesse of the USA does not come without a price, and any Israeli government that is in power will need to pay that price. Israeli policy cannot continue indefinitely to leverage  the real threat of Al-Qaida and Palestinian terrorism as the basis for expansion of Israeli settlements, because it conflicts with US interests. As Israeli voters know, the day of judgment for the policy of settlement expansion and perpetual occupation is drawing nigh. It will be much harder for Israel to follow the roadmap with Ariel Sharon and the Likud in the driver's seat.

Ami Isseroff,

Rehovot,

Israel